PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

VfL Osnabrück 1–1 SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

VfL Osnabrück and SG Dynamo Dresden drew 1–1.

Shots
139
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.450.61
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Osnabrück and SG Dynamo Dresden drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Osnabrück – SG Dynamo Dresden): shots 13–9, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.45–0.61, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SG Dynamo Dresden's recent record differs from the season

weak

SG Dynamo Dresden's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

SG Dynamo Dresden have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.1%PossessionVfL Osnabrück · SG Dynamo Dresden● 55.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL OsnabrückSG Dynamo DresdenBaseline
Possession42.1%55.1%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsVfL Osnabrück 13 shots, SG Dynamo Dresden 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsVfL Osnabrück 5 shots, SG Dynamo Dresden 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.45 xG0.61 xGVfL Osnabrück 1.45 xG, SG Dynamo Dresden 0.61 xG
  • Possession44%56%VfL Osnabrück 44%, SG Dynamo Dresden 56%
  • Corners4 corners10 cornersVfL Osnabrück 4 corners, SG Dynamo Dresden 10 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls11 foulsVfL Osnabrück 7 fouls, SG Dynamo Dresden 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards4 cardsVfL Osnabrück 5 cards, SG Dynamo Dresden 4 cards
  • Passes483 passes610 passesVfL Osnabrück 483 passes, SG Dynamo Dresden 610 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.8%85.1%VfL Osnabrück 81.8%, SG Dynamo Dresden 85.1%
  • Shots inside box10 shots4 shotsVfL Osnabrück 10 shots, SG Dynamo Dresden 4 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks4 blocksVfL Osnabrück 5 blocks, SG Dynamo Dresden 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save4 savesVfL Osnabrück 1 save, SG Dynamo Dresden 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideVfL Osnabrück 2 offsides, SG Dynamo Dresden 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 38′Niklas HauptmannGoal · SG Dynamo Dresden
  2. 45′Robin MeißnerYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  3. Half-time
  4. 68′Nicolai RappYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  5. 72′Jonas SternerYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  6. 75′Robin FabinskiYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  7. 81′Patrice ČovićYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  8. 82′Simon StraudiYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  9. 84′Konrad FaberYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  10. 87′Robin FabinskiGoal · VfL Osnabrück
  11. 90′Leon FlachYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  12. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′VfL Osnabrück · 1 player changeLeon Flach
  • 61′VfL Osnabrück · 3 player changesDaniel-Kofi Kyereh · Ismail Badjie · Konrad Faber
  • 69′SG Dynamo Dresden · 1 player changeChristoph Daferner
  • 82′VfL Osnabrück · 1 player changeLuca Raimund
  • 82′SG Dynamo Dresden · 1 player changeJakob Lemmer
  • 87′SG Dynamo Dresden · 3 player changesAhmet Muhamedbegović · Kennedy Okpala · Alexander Rossipal

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

VfL Osnabrück
  1. Jonas KrumreyG
  2. Jannik MüllerD
  3. Niklas WiemannD
  4. Robin FabinskiD
  5. Patrick KammerbauerD
  6. Jonathan GómezD
  7. Bjarke JacobsenM
  8. Fridolin WagnerM
  9. Robin MeißnerF
  10. Adrian BeckF
  11. Bernd RiesselmannF
SG Dynamo Dresden
  1. Lennart GrillG
  2. Nicolai RappD
  3. Jonas SternerD
  4. Friedrich MüllerD
  5. Simon StraudiD
  6. Robert WagnerM
  7. Tobias RaschlM
  8. Niklas HauptmannM
  9. Vincent VermeijF
  10. Ben BobzienF
  11. Patrice ČovićF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Osnabrück favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · SG Dynamo Dresden in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Osnabrück7 matchesSG Dynamo Dresden7 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.12 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots7/712.1 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
42.1%Possession7/7● 55.1%
3.43 corners/matchCorners7/7● 7.14 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/710.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL OsnabrückSG Dynamo Dresden
Competition2. Bundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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