PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Eintracht Braunschweig won 1–0.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
30
Expected goals
1.081.3
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Eintracht Braunschweig beat Holstein Kiel 1–0. Recorded in this match (Eintracht Braunschweig – Holstein Kiel): shots 10–12, shots on target 3–0, expected goals 1.08–1.3, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Eintracht Braunschweig have a visible home split

weak

Eintracht Braunschweig's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match16.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Holstein Kiel have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.4%PossessionEintracht Braunschweig · Holstein Kiel● 56.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEintracht BraunschweigHolstein KielBaseline
Possession46.4%56.3%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsEintracht Braunschweig 10 shots, Holstein Kiel 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots0 shotsEintracht Braunschweig 3 shots, Holstein Kiel 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.08 xG1.3 xGEintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG, Holstein Kiel 1.3 xG
  • Possession35%65%Eintracht Braunschweig 35%, Holstein Kiel 65%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersEintracht Braunschweig 2 corners, Holstein Kiel 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls13 foulsEintracht Braunschweig 12 fouls, Holstein Kiel 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsEintracht Braunschweig 4 cards, Holstein Kiel 3 cards
  • Passes314 passes594 passesEintracht Braunschweig 314 passes, Holstein Kiel 594 passes
  • Pass accuracy66.6%80.5%Eintracht Braunschweig 66.6%, Holstein Kiel 80.5%
  • Shots inside box6 shots9 shotsEintracht Braunschweig 6 shots, Holstein Kiel 9 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks5 blocksEintracht Braunschweig 4 blocks, Holstein Kiel 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves2 savesEintracht Braunschweig 0 saves, Holstein Kiel 2 saves
  • Offsides8 offsides1 offsideEintracht Braunschweig 8 offsides, Holstein Kiel 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 11′Jan UrbichGoal · Eintracht Braunschweig
  2. 15′Ivan NekićYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  3. 29′Max MarieYellow card · Eintracht Braunschweig
  4. 44′Isidoros KoutsidisYellow card · Eintracht Braunschweig
  5. 45′Guillermo BalziYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  6. Half-time
  7. 62′Fabio Di Michele SanchezYellow card · Eintracht Braunschweig
  8. 65′Yann SturmYellow card · Eintracht Braunschweig
  9. 82′Jonas TherkelsenYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  10. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 57′Eintracht Braunschweig · 2 player changesLukas Frenkert · Robin Heußer
  • 67′Eintracht Braunschweig · 1 player changeJovan Mijatović
  • 71′Holstein Kiel · 1 player changeGiorgi Kvilitaia
  • 80′Eintracht Braunschweig · 1 player changeJunior Zé
  • 82′Holstein Kiel · 2 player changesGyan de Regt · Leon Parduzi
  • 83′Holstein Kiel · 1 player changeTill Wiese
  • 88′Holstein Kiel · 1 player changeFaride Alidou

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Eintracht Braunschweig
  1. Ron Thorben HoffmannG
  2. Mehmet AydınD
  3. Kevin EhlersD
  4. Fabio Di Michele SanchezD
  5. Isidoros KoutsidisD
  6. Florian FlickM
  7. Yann SturmM
  8. Samuele Di BenedettoM
  9. Max MarieM
  10. Aaron OpokuM
  11. Jan UrbichF
Holstein Kiel
  1. Timon WeinerG
  2. Noah MadsenD
  3. Ivan NekićD
  4. Hiroki SekineD
  5. John TolkinD
  6. Guillermo BalziM
  7. Jonas TherkelsenM
  8. Adrián KaprálikM
  9. Ikem UgohM
  10. Jonas MeffertM
  11. Phil HarresF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Eintracht Braunschweig
1Draws
3Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — Eintracht Braunschweig · 2. Bundesliga2–0
Eintracht Braunschweig — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga1–1
Holstein Kiel — Eintracht Braunschweig · 2. Bundesliga1–2
Eintracht Braunschweig — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga0–1
Eintracht Braunschweig — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Eintracht Braunschweig favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 6

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Eintracht Braunschweig7 matchesHolstein Kiel7 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71 goal/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.5 xG/match
16.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/714.4 shots/match
7 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
46.4%Possession7/7● 56.3%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/7● 6.14 corners/match
9.71 fouls/matchFouls7/714.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsEintracht BraunschweigHolstein Kiel
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headEintracht Braunschweig — Holstein Kiel
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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