PitchMath
League One · 2026

Wycombe Wanderers 1–4 Luton Town · League One

1–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Luton Town won 1–4.

Shots
1814
Shots on target
77
Expected goals
2.22.89
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Luton Town beat Wycombe Wanderers 4–1. Recorded in this match (Wycombe Wanderers – Luton Town): shots 18–14, shots on target 7–7, expected goals 2.2–2.89, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Wycombe Wanderers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wycombe Wanderers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots14 shotsWycombe Wanderers 18 shots, Luton Town 14 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots7 shotsWycombe Wanderers 7 shots, Luton Town 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.2 xG2.89 xGWycombe Wanderers 2.2 xG, Luton Town 2.89 xG
  • Possession59%41%Wycombe Wanderers 59%, Luton Town 41%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersWycombe Wanderers 4 corners, Luton Town 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsWycombe Wanderers 10 fouls, Luton Town 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsWycombe Wanderers 0 cards, Luton Town 2 cards
  • Passes484 passes343 passesWycombe Wanderers 484 passes, Luton Town 343 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.9%77.3%Wycombe Wanderers 82.9%, Luton Town 77.3%
  • Shots inside box14 shots11 shotsWycombe Wanderers 14 shots, Luton Town 11 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks1 blockWycombe Wanderers 2 blocks, Luton Town 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves6 savesWycombe Wanderers 3 saves, Luton Town 6 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides2 offsidesWycombe Wanderers 5 offsides, Luton Town 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 16′Kasey PalmerGoal · Luton Town
  2. 27′Jamie DonleyGoal · Luton Town
  3. 40′Kal NaismithYellow card · Luton Town
  4. Half-time
  5. 46′Nahki WellsGoal · Luton Town
  6. 76′Liam WalshYellow card · Luton Town
  7. 84′Devante ColeGoal · Luton Town
  8. 90′Jack GrimmerGoal · Wycombe Wanderers
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Wycombe Wanderers · 2 player changesCauley Woodrow · Jack Grimmer
  • 46′Luton Town · 1 player changeJoe Johnson
  • 57′Wycombe Wanderers · 2 player changesMalik Mothersille · Caolan Boyd-Munce
  • 58′Luton Town · 1 player changeIsaiah Jones
  • 71′Luton Town · 2 player changesDevante Cole · Jake Richards
  • 76′Wycombe Wanderers · 1 player changeEmre Tezgel
  • 83′Luton Town · 1 player changeEmilio Lawrence

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Wycombe Wanderers
  1. Conor HazardG
  2. Daniel HarvieD
  3. Dan CaseyD
  4. Connor TaylorD
  5. Steve CookD
  6. Josh ScowenM
  7. Aaron MorleyM
  8. Ewan HendersonM
  9. Jayden WarehamF
  10. Samuel ParkerF
  11. Fred OnyedinmaF
Luton Town
  1. James SheaG
  2. Hakeem OdofinD
  3. Kal NaismithD
  4. Mads AndersenD
  5. George JohnstonD
  6. Liam WalshM
  7. Jamie DonleyM
  8. Tudor Mendel-IdowuM
  9. Jordan ClarkM
  10. Kasey PalmerM
  11. Nahki WellsF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Wycombe Wanderers
0Draws
2Luton Town
Wycombe Wanderers — Luton Town · League One1–2
Luton Town — Wycombe Wanderers · League One4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Wycombe Wanderers favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Wycombe Wanderers9 matchesLuton Town8 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲ 2 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.63 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13.4 shots/match
5.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/84.63 shots/match
50%Possession8/8● 55.1%
5.38 corners/matchCorners8/8● 6.25 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls8/812.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWycombe WanderersLuton Town
CompetitionLeague One
Head-to-headWycombe Wanderers — Luton Town
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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