PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford · Premier League

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2.

Shots
2014
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.761.25
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Brentford): shots 20–14, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.76–1.25, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAston Villa · Brentford15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaBrentfordBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match15.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match14.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots14 shotsAston Villa 20 shots, Brentford 14 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsAston Villa 7 shots, Brentford 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG1.25 xGAston Villa 1.76 xG, Brentford 1.25 xG
  • Possession52%48%Aston Villa 52%, Brentford 48%
  • Corners2 corners2 cornersAston Villa 2 corners, Brentford 2 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls24 foulsAston Villa 7 fouls, Brentford 24 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsAston Villa 2 cards, Brentford 5 cards
  • Passes407 passes358 passesAston Villa 407 passes, Brentford 358 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.9%79.3%Aston Villa 78.9%, Brentford 79.3%
  • Shots inside box15 shots12 shotsAston Villa 15 shots, Brentford 12 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks3 blocksAston Villa 7 blocks, Brentford 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves5 savesAston Villa 3 saves, Brentford 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideAston Villa 1 offside, Brentford 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 10′Yehor YarmoliukGoal · Brentford
  2. 12′Nicolas JacksonGoal · Aston Villa
  3. 35′Igor ThiagoYellow card · Brentford
  4. 45′Emiliano BuendíaYellow card · Aston Villa
  5. Half-time
  6. 72′Matty CashYellow card · Aston Villa
  7. 75′Vitaly JaneltYellow card · Brentford
  8. 77′John McGinnGoal · Aston Villa
  9. 79′Kristoffer AjerGoal · Brentford
  10. 82′Michael KayodeYellow card · Brentford
  11. 84′Kristoffer AjerYellow card · Brentford
  12. 90′Callum WilsonYellow card · Brentford
  13. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Aston Villa · 1 player changeAaron Wan-Bissaka
  • 46′Brentford · 1 player changeAaron Hickey
  • 52′Brentford · 1 player changeMamadou Sangare
  • 64′Aston Villa · 1 player changeIbrahim Mbaye
  • 67′Brentford · 2 player changesDango Ouattara · Mathias Jensen
  • 85′Brentford · 1 player changeCallum Wilson
  • 86′Aston Villa · 2 player changesRoss Barkley · Alysson

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Aston Villa4-2-3-1
  1. Zion SuzukiG
  2. Matty CashD
  3. Victor LindelöfD
  4. Matteo RuggeriD
  5. Pau TorresD
  6. Boubacar KamaraM
  7. João GomesM
  8. Johan ManzambiM
  9. John McGinnF
  10. Emiliano BuendíaF
  11. Nicolas JacksonF
Brentford4-2-3-1
  1. Caoimhin KelleherG
  2. Kristoffer AjerD
  3. Keane Lewis-PotterD
  4. Michael KayodeD
  5. Jannik SchusterD
  6. Yehor YarmoliukM
  7. Mamadou SangareM
  8. Vitaly JaneltM
  9. Kevin SchadeF
  10. Igor ThiagoF
  11. Jaidon AnthonyF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Aston Villa
1Draws
2Brentford
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League0–1
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 10 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa6 matchesBrentford6 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 2 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.85 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 15.8 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 4.5 shots/match
46.7% ●Possession6/645.7%
2.83 corners/matchCorners6/6● 4 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls6/615.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headAston Villa — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required