PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Aston Villa vs Brentford · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.82
Expected goals
0.881.97
Shots
9.616.2
Possession
45.6%45.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. No second reading clears the same sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAston Villa · Brentford16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaBrentfordBaseline
Shots9.6 shots/match16.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against16.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 11 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa5 matchesBrentford5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 0.8 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.97 xG/match
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 16.2 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 4.6 shots/match
45.6% ●Possession5/545.2%
3 corners/matchCorners5/5● 4.4 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Aston Villa
1Draws
2Brentford
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League0–1
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headAston Villa — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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