PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Bucaramanga 2–2 Independiente Medellín · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellín drew 2–2.

Shots
816
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.562.57
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellín drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Atlético Bucaramanga – Independiente Medellín): shots 8–16, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.56–2.57, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Bucaramanga's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots16 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 8 shots, Independiente Medellín 16 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 3 shots, Independiente Medellín 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.56 xG2.57 xGAtlético Bucaramanga 0.56 xG, Independiente Medellín 2.57 xG
  • Possession32%68%Atlético Bucaramanga 32%, Independiente Medellín 68%
  • Corners1 corner8 cornersAtlético Bucaramanga 1 corner, Independiente Medellín 8 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsAtlético Bucaramanga 13 fouls, Independiente Medellín 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsAtlético Bucaramanga 2 cards, Independiente Medellín 3 cards
  • Passes215 passes462 passesAtlético Bucaramanga 215 passes, Independiente Medellín 462 passes
  • Pass accuracy68.8%86.8%Atlético Bucaramanga 68.8%, Independiente Medellín 86.8%
  • Shots inside box3 shots11 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 3 shots, Independiente Medellín 11 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksAtlético Bucaramanga 3 blocks, Independiente Medellín 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveAtlético Bucaramanga 3 saves, Independiente Medellín 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesAtlético Bucaramanga 1 offside, Independiente Medellín 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Bucaramanga
0Draws
0Independiente Medellín
Independiente Medellín — Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Bucaramanga favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Medellín in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Bucaramanga27 matchesIndependiente Medellín27 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.26 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals20/22▲ 1.28 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 14.6 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.85 shots/match
50.1%Possession27/27● 53.5%
3.96 corners/matchCorners27/27● 5.04 corners/match
5 cards/matchCards4/104.1 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético BucaramangaIndependiente Medellín
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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