PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Botafogo-SP 1–0 Guarani · Serie B

1–0Historical match

Guarani

LLDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo-SP won 1–0.

Shots
197
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.960.27
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo-SP beat Guarani 1–0. Recorded in this match (Botafogo-SP – Guarani): shots 19–7, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.96–0.27, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Guarani's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Guarani's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Botafogo-SP have a visible home split

moderate

Botafogo-SP's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots7 shotsBotafogo-SP 19 shots, Guarani 7 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsBotafogo-SP 4 shots, Guarani 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG0.27 xGBotafogo-SP 0.96 xG, Guarani 0.27 xG
  • Possession50%50%Botafogo-SP 50%, Guarani 50%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersBotafogo-SP 8 corners, Guarani 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsBotafogo-SP 10 fouls, Guarani 13 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Guarani in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP15 matchesGuarani15 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 0.87 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals15/14▲ 1.13 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots15/1411.6 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target15/14▲ 3.86 shots/match
45.2%Possession15/14● 51.6%
6.8 corners/match ●Corners15/145 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1412.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 4 Jul 2023, 03:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPGuarani
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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