PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Ponte Preta 0–1 Tombense · Serie B

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tombense won 0–1.

Shots
1213
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.841.09
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tombense beat Ponte Preta 1–0. Recorded in this match (Ponte Preta – Tombense): shots 12–13, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.84–1.09, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tombense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tombense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots13 shotsPonte Preta 12 shots, Tombense 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsPonte Preta 3 shots, Tombense 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.84 xG1.09 xGPonte Preta 0.84 xG, Tombense 1.09 xG
  • Possession59%41%Ponte Preta 59%, Tombense 41%
  • Corners11 corners3 cornersPonte Preta 11 corners, Tombense 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsPonte Preta 12 fouls, Tombense 15 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ponte Preta favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Tombense in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ponte Preta17 matchesTombense17 matches
0.59 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 0.94 goals/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.29 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.42 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 15.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.81 shots/match
47.1%Possession16/16● 52.1%
4.5 corners/matchCorners16/16● 6.63 corners/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPonte PretaTombense
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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