PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Avaí 1–0 Ceará · Serie B

Avaí

LLDWD
1–0Historical match

Ceará

LDLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Avaí won 1–0.

Shots
118
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
0.980.4
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Avaí beat Ceará 1–0. Recorded in this match (Avaí – Ceará): shots 11–8, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 0.98–0.4, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ceará's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ceará's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.97 goals/match1.03 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ceará have a visible away split

moderate

Ceará's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsAvaí 11 shots, Ceará 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsAvaí 4 shots, Ceará 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG0.4 xGAvaí 0.98 xG, Ceará 0.4 xG
  • Possession50%50%Avaí 50%, Ceará 50%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersAvaí 4 corners, Ceará 5 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls16 foulsAvaí 16 fouls, Ceará 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Avaí
1Draws
1Ceará
Ceará — Avaí · Serie B0–0
Avaí — Ceará · Serie A2–0
Ceará — Avaí · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Avaí favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Ceará in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Avaí33 matchesCeará33 matches
0.85 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 0.97 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals32/33▲ 1.26 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots32/33▲ 14 shots/match
3.19 shots/matchShots on target32/33▲ 4.21 shots/match
49.7%Possession32/33● 53.2%
4.72 corners/matchCorners32/33● 5.52 corners/match
15 fouls/matchFouls32/3316.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Oct 2023, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAvaíCeará
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
Head-to-headAvaí — Ceará
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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