PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Tombense 0–1 Mirassol · Serie B

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Mirassol won 0–1.

Shots
1314
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.961.21
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Mirassol beat Tombense 1–0. Recorded in this match (Tombense – Mirassol): shots 13–14, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.96–1.21, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Mirassol's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Mirassol's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Tombense have a visible home split

moderate

Tombense's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots14 shotsTombense 13 shots, Mirassol 14 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsTombense 3 shots, Mirassol 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG1.21 xGTombense 0.96 xG, Mirassol 1.21 xG
  • Possession40%60%Tombense 40%, Mirassol 60%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersTombense 4 corners, Mirassol 6 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls13 foulsTombense 18 fouls, Mirassol 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Tombense
0Draws
1Mirassol
Mirassol — Tombense · Serie B2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tombense favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Mirassol in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tombense38 matchesMirassol38 matches
0.97 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed38/38▲ 0.82 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals37/37▲ 1.42 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots37/3713.6 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target37/37▲ 4.27 shots/match
50%Possession37/37● 55.9%
5.41 corners/match ●Corners37/374.32 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls37/3716.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTombenseMirassol
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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