PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Guarani 0–1 Sport Recife · Serie B

Guarani

LLDLD
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sport Recife won 0–1.

Shots
1018
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.671.13
Possession
29%71%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sport Recife beat Guarani 1–0. Recorded in this match (Guarani – Sport Recife): shots 10–18, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.67–1.13, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Guarani's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Guarani's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.71 corners/match ●CornersGuarani · Sport Recife6.62 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricGuaraniSport RecifeBaseline
Corners6.71 corners/match6.62 corners/match5.22 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots18 shotsGuarani 10 shots, Sport Recife 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsGuarani 3 shots, Sport Recife 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG1.13 xGGuarani 0.67 xG, Sport Recife 1.13 xG
  • Possession29%71%Guarani 29%, Sport Recife 71%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersGuarani 5 corners, Sport Recife 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsGuarani 10 fouls, Sport Recife 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Guarani
0Draws
1Sport Recife
Guarani — Sport Recife · Serie B3–1
Sport Recife — Guarani · Serie B2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Guarani favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Sport Recife in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Guarani14 matchesSport Recife13 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored14/13▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed14/13▲ 0.92 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals14/13▲ 1.28 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots14/1313.8 shots/match
4.07 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/133.62 shots/match
51.7%Possession14/13● 57.5%
6.71 corners/match ●Corners14/136.62 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 8 Jul 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGuaraniSport Recife
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
Head-to-headGuarani — Sport Recife
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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