PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Athletic Club 0–1 Náutico · Serie B

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Náutico won 0–1.

Shots
915
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
0.661.06
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Náutico beat Athletic Club 1–0. Recorded in this match (Athletic Club – Náutico): shots 9–15, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 0.66–1.06, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Náutico's recent record differs from the season

weak

Náutico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots15 shotsAthletic Club 9 shots, Náutico 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotAthletic Club 5 shots, Náutico 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.66 xG1.06 xGAthletic Club 0.66 xG, Náutico 1.06 xG
  • Possession54%46%Athletic Club 54%, Náutico 46%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersAthletic Club 8 corners, Náutico 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls15 foulsAthletic Club 14 fouls, Náutico 15 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletic Club favored in 2 of 4 directional metrics · Náutico in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletic Club6 matchesNáutico6 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1 goal/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 28 Apr 2026, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingShare of matches scored in rankingFewest goals allowed per match ranking
TeamsAthletic ClubNáutico
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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