PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Ceará 2–1 Fortaleza · Serie B

Ceará

WDDLL
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Ceará won 2–1.

Shots
1017
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.791.63
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ceará beat Fortaleza 2–1. Recorded in this match (Ceará – Fortaleza): shots 10–17, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.79–1.63, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots17 shotsCeará 10 shots, Fortaleza 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsCeará 5 shots, Fortaleza 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.79 xG1.63 xGCeará 0.79 xG, Fortaleza 1.63 xG
  • Possession50%50%Ceará 50%, Fortaleza 50%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersCeará 3 corners, Fortaleza 2 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls21 foulsCeará 20 fouls, Fortaleza 21 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Ceará
1Draws
1Fortaleza
Ceará — Fortaleza · Serie A1–1
Fortaleza — Ceará · Serie A0–1
Ceará — Fortaleza · Serie A0–1
Fortaleza — Ceará · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ceará favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 2 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ceará9 matchesFortaleza9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.22 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.11 goals/match
1.1 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/50.95 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots4/5▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/53.8 shots/match
48.3% ●Possession4/545.4%
5.75 corners/match ●Corners4/54.6 corners/match
16.5 fouls/matchFouls4/517 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 18 May 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCearáFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCeará — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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