PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Atlético Goianiense 1–0 Fortaleza · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Goianiense won 1–0.

Shots
615
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.491.49
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Goianiense beat Fortaleza 1–0. Recorded in this match (Atlético Goianiense – Fortaleza): shots 6–15, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.49–1.49, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Goianiense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Goianiense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots15 shotsAtlético Goianiense 6 shots, Fortaleza 15 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsAtlético Goianiense 2 shots, Fortaleza 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.49 xG1.49 xGAtlético Goianiense 0.49 xG, Fortaleza 1.49 xG
  • Possession36%64%Atlético Goianiense 36%, Fortaleza 64%
  • Corners1 corner11 cornersAtlético Goianiense 1 corner, Fortaleza 11 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls16 foulsAtlético Goianiense 9 fouls, Fortaleza 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Goianiense
1Draws
2Fortaleza
Atlético Goianiense — Fortaleza · Serie A3–1
Fortaleza — Atlético Goianiense · Serie A3–1
Fortaleza — Atlético Goianiense · Serie A1–1
Atlético Goianiense — Fortaleza · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Goianiense favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Goianiense17 matchesFortaleza17 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.12 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1 goal/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/91.22 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots7/9▲ 15.2 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target7/9▲ 5 shots/match
43.4%Possession7/9● 51.1%
5.71 corners/matchCorners7/9● 5.89 corners/match
18.1 fouls/matchFouls7/916.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 13 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético GoianienseFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headAtlético Goianiense — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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