PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Ponte Preta 1–1 Athletic Club · Serie B

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Ponte Preta and Athletic Club drew 1–1.

Shots
1412
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
0.921.77
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ponte Preta and Athletic Club drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Ponte Preta – Athletic Club): shots 14–12, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 0.92–1.77, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.42 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match9.42 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots12 shotsPonte Preta 14 shots, Athletic Club 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsPonte Preta 6 shots, Athletic Club 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.92 xG1.77 xGPonte Preta 0.92 xG, Athletic Club 1.77 xG
  • Possession54%46%Ponte Preta 54%, Athletic Club 46%
  • Corners1 corner1 cornerPonte Preta 1 corner, Athletic Club 1 corner
  • Fouls21 fouls18 foulsPonte Preta 21 fouls, Athletic Club 18 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Ponte Preta
0Draws
1Athletic Club
Athletic Club — Ponte Preta · Serie B2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ponte Preta favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ponte Preta20 matchesAthletic Club20 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲ 0.95 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 0.9 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goals9/12▲ 1.04 xG/match
10.8 shots/match ▲Shots9/129.42 shots/match
3.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/123 shots/match
42.1% ●Possession9/1240.3%
4.56 corners/match ●Corners9/123.58 corners/match
17 fouls/matchFouls9/1215.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPonte PretaAthletic Club
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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