PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Fortaleza 1–0 Botafogo-SP · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–0.

Shots
189
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
2.160.4
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Botafogo-SP 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Botafogo-SP): shots 18–9, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 2.16–0.4, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsFortaleza 18 shots, Botafogo-SP 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsFortaleza 5 shots, Botafogo-SP 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.16 xG0.4 xGFortaleza 2.16 xG, Botafogo-SP 0.4 xG
  • Possession54%46%Fortaleza 54%, Botafogo-SP 46%
  • Corners10 corners6 cornersFortaleza 10 corners, Botafogo-SP 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls18 foulsFortaleza 13 fouls, Botafogo-SP 18 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza
0Draws
1Botafogo-SP
Botafogo-SP — Fortaleza · Serie B4–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Botafogo-SP in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza20 matchesBotafogo-SP20 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored20/201.2 goals/match
0.95 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/201.05 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/111.23 xG/match
15.5 shots/match ▲Shots10/1113.5 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/114.27 shots/match
51.4% ●Possession10/1149%
6.3 corners/match ●Corners10/116.18 corners/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1115.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Jul 2026, 04:35 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaBotafogo-SP
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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