PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Botafogo-SP 4–2 Juventude · Serie B

4–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Botafogo-SP won 4–2.

Shots
1316
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.620.62
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo-SP beat Juventude 4–2. Recorded in this match (Botafogo-SP – Juventude): shots 13–16, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.62–0.62, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots16 shotsBotafogo-SP 13 shots, Juventude 16 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsBotafogo-SP 4 shots, Juventude 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.62 xG0.62 xGBotafogo-SP 1.62 xG, Juventude 0.62 xG
  • Possession38%62%Botafogo-SP 38%, Juventude 62%
  • Corners4 corners9 cornersBotafogo-SP 4 corners, Juventude 9 corners
  • Fouls22 fouls16 foulsBotafogo-SP 22 fouls, Juventude 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Botafogo-SP
0Draws
1Juventude
Botafogo-SP — Juventude · Serie B0–2
Juventude — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Juventude in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP19 matchesJuventude19 matches
1.26 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.11 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 0.63 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/50.57 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots10/510.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/53.6 shots/match
49.3% ●Possession10/548%
6.2 corners/match ●Corners10/54 corners/match
15.3 fouls/matchFouls10/515 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Jul 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPJuventude
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Juventude
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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