PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Cuiabá 1–1 Fortaleza · Serie B

Cuiabá

WDLLD
1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cuiabá and Fortaleza drew 1–1.

Shots
175
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
1.941.03
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cuiabá and Fortaleza drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Cuiabá – Fortaleza): shots 17–5, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 1.94–1.03, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots5 shotsCuiabá 17 shots, Fortaleza 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotCuiabá 3 shots, Fortaleza 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.94 xG1.03 xGCuiabá 1.94 xG, Fortaleza 1.03 xG
  • Possession57%43%Cuiabá 57%, Fortaleza 43%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersCuiabá 3 corners, Fortaleza 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsCuiabá 11 fouls, Fortaleza 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Cuiabá
1Draws
1Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Cuiabá · Serie B0–0
Fortaleza — Cuiabá · Serie A1–0
Cuiabá — Fortaleza · Serie A5–0
Cuiabá — Fortaleza · Serie A2–1
Fortaleza — Cuiabá · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cuiabá favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cuiabá21 matchesFortaleza21 matches
0.76 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲ 1.14 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/210.95 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals10/111.29 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots10/1114.5 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲ 4.64 shots/match
49.1%Possession10/11● 50.6%
6.1 corners/match ●Corners10/116 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1115.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 10 Aug 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCuiabáFortaleza
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCuiabá — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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