PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Fortaleza 1–1 São Bernardo · Serie B

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza and São Bernardo drew 1–1.

Shots
2414
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
2.110.93
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza and São Bernardo drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – São Bernardo): shots 24–14, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 2.11–0.93, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots14 shotsFortaleza 24 shots, São Bernardo 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsFortaleza 5 shots, São Bernardo 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.11 xG0.93 xGFortaleza 2.11 xG, São Bernardo 0.93 xG
  • Possession51%49%Fortaleza 51%, São Bernardo 49%
  • Corners8 corners6 cornersFortaleza 8 corners, São Bernardo 6 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls8 foulsFortaleza 9 fouls, São Bernardo 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fortaleza
0Draws
0São Bernardo
São Bernardo — Fortaleza · Serie B0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · São Bernardo in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza23 matchesSão Bernardo23 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.39 goals/match
0.91 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/231.13 goals/match
1.36 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/91.08 xG/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots12/913.4 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target12/9▲ 5.33 shots/match
50.7% ●Possession12/950.6%
6.17 corners/match ●Corners12/94.33 corners/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls12/910.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 20 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaSão Bernardo
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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