PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Baltika Kaliningrad 0–1 Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lokomotiv Moscow won 0–1.

Shots
108
Shots on target
31
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Lokomotiv Moscow): shots 10–8, shots on target 3–1, possession 40%–60%, corners 5–4. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match ▲ShotsBaltika Kaliningrad · Lokomotiv Moscow13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradLokomotiv MoscowBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match17.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lokomotiv Moscow have recorded the higher season possession share.

36.7%PossessionBaltika Kaliningrad · Lokomotiv Moscow● 52.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradLokomotiv MoscowBaseline
Possession36.7%52.9%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots8 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 10 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotBaltika Kaliningrad 3 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 1 shot
  • Possession40%60%Baltika Kaliningrad 40%, Lokomotiv Moscow 60%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 5 corners, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls11 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 16 fouls, Lokomotiv Moscow 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsBaltika Kaliningrad 1 card, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 cards
  • Passes291 passes455 passesBaltika Kaliningrad 291 passes, Lokomotiv Moscow 455 passes
  • Pass accuracy62.2%74.3%Baltika Kaliningrad 62.2%, Lokomotiv Moscow 74.3%
  • Shots inside box5 shots5 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 5 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 5 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block4 blocksBaltika Kaliningrad 1 block, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves3 savesBaltika Kaliningrad 0 saves, Lokomotiv Moscow 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesBaltika Kaliningrad 1 offside, Lokomotiv Moscow 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
1Draws
4Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–0
Baltika Kaliningrad — Lokomotiv Moscow · Russian Cup1–2
Baltika Kaliningrad — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League1–1
Lokomotiv Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Russian Cup2–0
Baltika Kaliningrad — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 6 of 9 directional metrics · Lokomotiv Moscow in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad7 matchesLokomotiv Moscow7 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
12.9 shots/matchShots7/713.1 shots/match
4.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/72.71 shots/match
36.7%Possession7/7● 52.9%
4.29 corners/match ●Corners7/73 corners/match
16 fouls/matchFouls7/714.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradLokomotiv Moscow
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headBaltika Kaliningrad — Lokomotiv Moscow
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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