PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

CSKA Moscow 1–0 Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CSKA Moscow won 1–0.

Shots
138
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.820.22
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

CSKA Moscow beat Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0. Recorded in this match (CSKA Moscow – Baltika Kaliningrad): shots 13–8, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.82–0.22, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.9 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsCSKA Moscow 13 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotCSKA Moscow 3 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.82 xG0.22 xGCSKA Moscow 0.82 xG, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.22 xG
  • Possession54%46%CSKA Moscow 54%, Baltika Kaliningrad 46%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersCSKA Moscow 7 corners, Baltika Kaliningrad 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsCSKA Moscow 10 fouls, Baltika Kaliningrad 14 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CSKA Moscow favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 1 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CSKA Moscow10 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad10 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.03 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots10/1011.5 shots/match
4.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
49.5% ●Possession10/1049%
4.4 corners/match ●Corners10/104.1 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCSKA MoscowBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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