PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0 Orenburg · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Baltika Kaliningrad won 1–0.

Shots
817
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.470.8
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

Baltika Kaliningrad beat Orenburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Orenburg): shots 8–17, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.47–0.8, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orenburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Orenburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.3%PossessionBaltika Kaliningrad · Orenburg● 56.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradOrenburgBaseline
Possession47.3%56.6%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots17 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 8 shots, Orenburg 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 3 shots, Orenburg 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.47 xG0.8 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 0.47 xG, Orenburg 0.8 xG
  • Possession30%70%Baltika Kaliningrad 30%, Orenburg 70%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 5 corners, Orenburg 7 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls10 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 15 fouls, Orenburg 10 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Orenburg in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad11 matchesOrenburg11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.64 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.33 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 12.4 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target11/113.64 shots/match
47.3%Possession11/11● 56.6%
4.18 corners/matchCorners11/11● 5.09 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradOrenburg
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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