PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 0–2 Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Zenit St. Petersburg won 0–2.

Shots
510
Shots on target
14
Expected goals
0.791.52
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Zenit St. Petersburg beat Baltika Kaliningrad 2–0. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Zenit St. Petersburg): shots 5–10, shots on target 1–4, expected goals 0.79–1.52, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Baltika Kaliningrad show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Baltika Kaliningrad's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBaltika Kaliningrad · Zenit St. Petersburg13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradZenit St. PetersburgBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match8.36 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Zenit St. Petersburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

45%PossessionBaltika Kaliningrad · Zenit St. Petersburg● 63.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradZenit St. PetersburgBaseline
Possession45%63.3%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots10 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 5 shots, Zenit St. Petersburg 10 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot4 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 1 shot, Zenit St. Petersburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.79 xG1.52 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 0.79 xG, Zenit St. Petersburg 1.52 xG
  • Possession36%64%Baltika Kaliningrad 36%, Zenit St. Petersburg 64%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 4 corners, Zenit St. Petersburg 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls6 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 10 fouls, Zenit St. Petersburg 6 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Zenit St. Petersburg in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad14 matchesZenit St. Petersburg14 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2.07 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 0.93 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.53 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 4.5 shots/match
45%Possession14/14● 63.3%
4.36 corners/matchCorners14/14● 6.07 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/148.86 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradZenit St. Petersburg
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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