PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

FK Krasnodar 2–1 Krylya Sovetov Samara · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FK Krasnodar won 2–1.

Shots
148
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
2.260.85
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

FK Krasnodar beat Krylya Sovetov Samara 2–1. Recorded in this match (FK Krasnodar – Krylya Sovetov Samara): shots 14–8, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 2.26–0.85, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Krylya Sovetov Samara's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Krylya Sovetov Samara's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Krylya Sovetov Samara show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Krylya Sovetov Samara's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsFK Krasnodar · Krylya Sovetov Samara11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFK KrasnodarKrylya Sovetov SamaraBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FK Krasnodar have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.4% ●PossessionFK Krasnodar · Krylya Sovetov Samara46.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFK KrasnodarKrylya Sovetov SamaraBaseline
Possession56.4%46.8%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots8 shotsFK Krasnodar 14 shots, Krylya Sovetov Samara 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsFK Krasnodar 7 shots, Krylya Sovetov Samara 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.26 xG0.85 xGFK Krasnodar 2.26 xG, Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.85 xG
  • Possession51%49%FK Krasnodar 51%, Krylya Sovetov Samara 49%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersFK Krasnodar 2 corners, Krylya Sovetov Samara 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsFK Krasnodar 13 fouls, Krylya Sovetov Samara 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FK Krasnodar
1Draws
0Krylya Sovetov Samara
FK Krasnodar — Krylya Sovetov Samara · Premier League2–1
Krylya Sovetov Samara — FK Krasnodar · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FK Krasnodar favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Krylya Sovetov Samara in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FK Krasnodar14 matchesKrylya Sovetov Samara14 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2 goals/match
0.64 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.43 goals/match
1.95 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/141.64 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots14/1411.1 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on target14/144.79 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession14/1446.8%
5.14 corners/match ●Corners14/144.71 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/149.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFK KrasnodarKrylya Sovetov Samara
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headFK Krasnodar — Krylya Sovetov Samara
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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