PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

CSKA Moscow 3–2 Nizhny Novgorod · Premier League

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CSKA Moscow won 3–2.

Shots
138
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
1.261.01
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

CSKA Moscow beat Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3–2. Recorded in this match (CSKA Moscow – Pari Nizhny Novgorod): shots 13–8, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 1.26–1.01, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CSKA Moscow's recent record differs from the season

weak

CSKA Moscow's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.86 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Pari Nizhny Novgorod show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Pari Nizhny Novgorod's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsCSKA Moscow · Pari Nizhny Novgorod10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCSKA MoscowPari Nizhny NovgorodBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match10.1 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

CSKA Moscow have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.6% ●PossessionCSKA Moscow · Pari Nizhny Novgorod38.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCSKA MoscowPari Nizhny NovgorodBaseline
Possession49.6%38.1%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsCSKA Moscow 13 shots, Nizhny Novgorod 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsCSKA Moscow 7 shots, Nizhny Novgorod 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.26 xG1.01 xGCSKA Moscow 1.26 xG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.01 xG
  • Possession62%38%CSKA Moscow 62%, Nizhny Novgorod 38%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersCSKA Moscow 8 corners, Nizhny Novgorod 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls21 foulsCSKA Moscow 15 fouls, Nizhny Novgorod 21 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0CSKA Moscow
1Draws
1Nizhny Novgorod
CSKA Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod · Premier League0–1
Nizhny Novgorod — CSKA Moscow · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CSKA Moscow favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Nizhny Novgorod in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CSKA Moscow14 matchesNizhny Novgorod14 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141 goal/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1 goal/match
1.54 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/141.13 xG/match
11.9 shots/match ▲Shots14/1410.1 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/143.14 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession14/1438.1%
4.29 corners/match ●Corners14/142.29 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCSKA MoscowNizhny Novgorod
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headCSKA Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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