PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Excelsior · Eredivisie

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior drew 2–2.

Shots
1114
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.361.81
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior): shots 11–14, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.36–1.81, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for NEC Nijmegen, Excelsior.

3.09 days ▲Rest daysNEC Nijmegen · Excelsior2.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNEC NijmegenExcelsiorBaseline
Rest days3.09 days2.91 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

NEC Nijmegen have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.8% ●PossessionNEC Nijmegen · Excelsior42%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNEC NijmegenExcelsiorBaseline
Possession63.8%42%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Excelsior show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Excelsior's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsNEC Nijmegen · Excelsior13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNEC NijmegenExcelsiorBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match15.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots14 shotsNEC Nijmegen 11 shots, Excelsior 14 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsNEC Nijmegen 3 shots, Excelsior 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.36 xG1.81 xGNEC Nijmegen 1.36 xG, Excelsior 1.81 xG
  • Possession69%31%NEC Nijmegen 69%, Excelsior 31%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersNEC Nijmegen 2 corners, Excelsior 4 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls16 foulsNEC Nijmegen 5 fouls, Excelsior 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsNEC Nijmegen 1 card, Excelsior 3 cards
  • Passes675 passes298 passesNEC Nijmegen 675 passes, Excelsior 298 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.8%71.5%NEC Nijmegen 85.8%, Excelsior 71.5%
  • Shots inside box8 shots7 shotsNEC Nijmegen 8 shots, Excelsior 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksNEC Nijmegen 3 blocks, Excelsior 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveNEC Nijmegen 3 saves, Excelsior 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesNEC Nijmegen 3 offsides, Excelsior 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 4′Jamiro MonteiroYellow card · NEC Nijmegen
  2. 11′Adam TahauiGoal · NEC Nijmegen
  3. 43′David GardenGoal · Excelsior
  4. Half-time
  5. 52′Lennard HartjesYellow card · Excelsior
  6. 70′Rick MeissenYellow card · Excelsior
  7. 73′Valentin SulzbacherGoal · Excelsior
  8. 90′Noé LebretonGoal · NEC Nijmegen
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′NEC Nijmegen · 2 player changesPerr Schuurs · Philippe Sandler
  • 46′Excelsior · 1 player changeKasey Bos
  • 63′NEC Nijmegen · 2 player changesNoé Lebreton · Kevin Kers
  • 67′Excelsior · 1 player changeNesto Groen
  • 68′Excelsior · 1 player changeAymen Sliti
  • 71′Excelsior · 1 player changeValentin Sulzbacher
  • 81′Excelsior · 1 player changeAlireza Jahanbakhsh
  • 87′NEC Nijmegen · 1 player changeClement Bischoff

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

NEC Nijmegen
  1. Nikolas PolsterG
  2. Bram NuytinckD
  3. Adam TahauiD
  4. Tobias StormD
  5. Gabriel BrásD
  6. Ayodele ThomasD
  7. Dennis GeigerM
  8. Jamiro MonteiroM
  9. Isak Hansen AarøenF
  10. Dušan TadićF
  11. Willum Thor WillumssonF
Excelsior
  1. Stijn van GasselG
  2. Eric da Silva MoreiraD
  3. Rick MeissenD
  4. Casper WidellD
  5. Jan PlugD
  6. Simon JanssenD
  7. Irakli YegoianM
  8. Lennard HartjesM
  9. David GardenF
  10. Ilano Silva TimasF
  11. Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4NEC Nijmegen
0Draws
1Excelsior
Excelsior — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–2
NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior · Eredivisie5–0
Excelsior — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3
NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–4
Excelsior — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NEC Nijmegen favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Excelsior in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NEC Nijmegen5 matchesExcelsior5 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 1 goal/match
1.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.56 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots5/513 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 5.4 shots/match
63.8% ●Possession5/542%
5 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Sept 2026, 20:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNEC NijmegenExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headNEC Nijmegen — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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