PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AZ Alkmaar 1–0 SC Telstar · Eredivisie

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AZ Alkmaar won 1–0.

Shots
174
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
2.350.29
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

AZ Alkmaar beat SC Telstar 1–0. Recorded in this match (AZ Alkmaar – SC Telstar): shots 17–4, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 2.35–0.29, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Telstar show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SC Telstar's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAZ Alkmaar · SC Telstar8.14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAZ AlkmaarSC TelstarBaseline
Shots19.4 shots/match8.14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against8.29 shots/match17.9 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

SC Telstar's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Telstar's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.79 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AZ Alkmaar have recorded the higher season possession share.

59% ●PossessionAZ Alkmaar · SC Telstar40.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAZ AlkmaarSC TelstarBaseline
Possession59%40.9%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots4 shotsAZ Alkmaar 17 shots, SC Telstar 4 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotAZ Alkmaar 8 shots, SC Telstar 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.35 xG0.29 xGAZ Alkmaar 2.35 xG, SC Telstar 0.29 xG
  • Possession62%38%AZ Alkmaar 62%, SC Telstar 38%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersAZ Alkmaar 5 corners, SC Telstar 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls12 foulsAZ Alkmaar 15 fouls, SC Telstar 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardAZ Alkmaar 1 card, SC Telstar 1 card
  • Passes590 passes355 passesAZ Alkmaar 590 passes, SC Telstar 355 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.8%78.3%AZ Alkmaar 85.8%, SC Telstar 78.3%
  • Shots inside box13 shots3 shotsAZ Alkmaar 13 shots, SC Telstar 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockAZ Alkmaar 4 blocks, SC Telstar 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save7 savesAZ Alkmaar 1 save, SC Telstar 7 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides4 offsidesAZ Alkmaar 0 offsides, SC Telstar 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rui Mendes · SC Telstar · 28′ · 0.01 xG · on targetWeslley Patati · AZ Alkmaar · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSem Valk · SC Telstar · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRo-Zangelo Daal · AZ Alkmaar · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCalvin Stengs · AZ Alkmaar · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Schouten · AZ Alkmaar · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKees Smit · AZ Alkmaar · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAyoub Oufkir · AZ Alkmaar · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKees Smit · AZ Alkmaar · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJizz Hornkamp · AZ Alkmaar · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRo-Zangelo Daal · AZ Alkmaar · 58′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMateo Chávez · AZ Alkmaar · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMexx Meerdink · AZ Alkmaar · 19′ · 0.11 xG · goalMateo Chávez · AZ Alkmaar · 76′ · 0.12 xG · on targetWeslley Patati · AZ Alkmaar · 86′ · 0.14 xG · on targetKees Smit · AZ Alkmaar · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAbdelnour Soualhia · SC Telstar · 85′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedKees Smit · AZ Alkmaar · 75′ · 0.29 xG · on targetValdemar Byskov · AZ Alkmaar · 30′ · 0.34 xG · on targetMexx Meerdink · AZ Alkmaar · 55′ · 0.72 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AZ Alkmaar: 17 shots, 8 on target, 2.34 xG. SC Telstar: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.23 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mexx Meerdink · AZ Alkmaar · 19′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AZ Alkmaar 2.34 xG · SC Telstar 0.23 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

AZ Alkmaar
  1. Jari De BusserG
  2. Wouter GoesD
  3. Lewis SchoutenD
  4. Mateo ChávezD
  5. Elijah DijkstraD
  6. Peer KoopmeinersM
  7. Valdemar ByskovM
  8. Dave KwakmanM
  9. Mexx MeerdinkF
  10. Ro-Zangelo DaalF
  11. Calvin StengsF
SC Telstar
  1. Ronald Koeman JrG
  2. Jeff HardeveldD
  3. Gerald AldersD
  4. Abdelnour SoualhiaD
  5. Sem ValkD
  6. Marvin PeersmanD
  7. Tyrone OwusuM
  8. Nils RossenM
  9. Rui MendesF
  10. Jelani SeedorfF
  11. Patrick BrouwerF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3AZ Alkmaar
0Draws
0SC Telstar
AZ Alkmaar — SC Telstar · KNVB Beker2–1
SC Telstar — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie0–1
AZ Alkmaar — SC Telstar · Eredivisie2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AZ Alkmaar favored in 13 of 13 directional metrics · SC Telstar in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AZ Alkmaar7 matchesSC Telstar7 matches
2.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
0.86 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
2.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.08 xG/match
19.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/78.14 shots/match
7.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/72.14 shots/match
59% ●Possession7/740.9%
8.57 corners/match ●Corners7/74.14 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/710.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAZ AlkmaarSC Telstar
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAZ Alkmaar — SC Telstar
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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