PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AFC Ajax 2–2 Excelsior · Eredivisie

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax and Excelsior drew 2–2.

Shots
334
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.360.82
Possession
81%19%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax and Excelsior drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – Excelsior): shots 33–4, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.36–0.82, possession 81%–19%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

24.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · Excelsior11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxExcelsiorBaseline
Shots24.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against9.57 shots/match16.1 shots/match16.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AFC Ajax, Excelsior.

4 days ▲Rest daysAFC Ajax · Excelsior6.32 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAFC AjaxExcelsiorBaseline
Rest days4 days6.32 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.4% ●PossessionAFC Ajax · Excelsior40.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxExcelsiorBaseline
Possession64.4%40.7%48.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots33 shots4 shotsAFC Ajax 33 shots, Excelsior 4 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsAFC Ajax 8 shots, Excelsior 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.36 xG0.82 xGAFC Ajax 2.36 xG, Excelsior 0.82 xG
  • Possession81%19%AFC Ajax 81%, Excelsior 19%
  • Corners9 corners0 cornersAFC Ajax 9 corners, Excelsior 0 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls12 foulsAFC Ajax 6 fouls, Excelsior 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsAFC Ajax 1 card, Excelsior 2 cards
  • Passes820 passes197 passesAFC Ajax 820 passes, Excelsior 197 passes
  • Pass accuracy92.1%67%AFC Ajax 92.1%, Excelsior 67%
  • Shots inside box24 shots4 shotsAFC Ajax 24 shots, Excelsior 4 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks1 blockAFC Ajax 8 blocks, Excelsior 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves6 savesAFC Ajax 0 saves, Excelsior 6 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesAFC Ajax 3 offsides, Excelsior 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 32′Julian BrandtGoal · AFC Ajax
  2. 35′Jan PlugYellow card · Excelsior
  3. 45′Lennard HartjesGoal · Excelsior
  4. Half-time
  5. 62′Aymen SlitiGoal · Excelsior
  6. 64′Tolu ArokodareGoal · AFC Ajax
  7. 85′Irakli YegoianYellow card · Excelsior
  8. 85′Oscar GloukhYellow card · AFC Ajax
  9. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 23′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeOwen Wijndal
  • 62′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesOliver Valaker Edvardsen · Tolu Arokodare
  • 65′Excelsior · 1 player changeKasey Bos
  • 71′Excelsior · 2 player changesIlano Silva Timas · Alireza Jahanbakhsh
  • 76′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeSofyan Amrabat
  • 77′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeAbdellah Ouazane
  • 86′Excelsior · 1 player changeMario Domínguez

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

AFC Ajax
  1. Marc-André Ter StegenG
  2. Anton GaaeiD
  3. Thilo KehrerD
  4. Caio HenriqueD
  5. Youri BaasD
  6. Julian BrandtM
  7. Davy KlaassenM
  8. Jorthy MokioM
  9. Kasper DolbergF
  10. Oscar GloukhF
  11. Viktor TsygankovF
Excelsior
  1. Stijn van GasselG
  2. Eric da Silva MoreiraD
  3. Casper WidellD
  4. Jan PlugD
  5. Simon JanssenD
  6. Rick MeissenM
  7. Irakli YegoianM
  8. Lennard HartjesM
  9. Aymen SlitiF
  10. David GardenF
  11. Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1AFC Ajax
3Draws
1Excelsior
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie1–2
AFC Ajax — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
Excelsior — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Excelsior in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax7 matchesExcelsior7 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/72.14 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
2.62 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.32 xG/match
24.7 shots/match ▲Shots7/711.3 shots/match
8.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74.71 shots/match
64.4% ●Possession7/740.7%
8 corners/match ●Corners7/74.29 corners/match
8.71 fouls/matchFouls7/712 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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