PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

Excelsior 1–2 FC Utrecht · Eredivisie

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Utrecht won 1–2.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
0.611.42
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Utrecht beat Excelsior 2–1. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – FC Utrecht): shots 10–12, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 0.61–1.42, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Excelsior have a visible home split

weak

Excelsior's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.5 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.17 goals/match1.92 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12 fouls/matchFoulsExcelsior · FC Utrecht16.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorFC UtrechtBaseline
Fouls12 fouls/match16.3 fouls/match10.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsExcelsior 10 shots, FC Utrecht 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsExcelsior 4 shots, FC Utrecht 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG1.42 xGExcelsior 0.61 xG, FC Utrecht 1.42 xG
  • Possession56%44%Excelsior 56%, FC Utrecht 44%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersExcelsior 5 corners, FC Utrecht 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls8 foulsExcelsior 9 fouls, FC Utrecht 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsExcelsior 2 cards, FC Utrecht 0 cards
  • Passes533 passes436 passesExcelsior 533 passes, FC Utrecht 436 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.7%77.8%Excelsior 82.7%, FC Utrecht 77.8%
  • Shots inside box8 shots8 shotsExcelsior 8 shots, FC Utrecht 8 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksExcelsior 3 blocks, FC Utrecht 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesExcelsior 4 saves, FC Utrecht 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesExcelsior 1 offside, FC Utrecht 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 36′Artem StepanovGoal · FC Utrecht
  2. Half-time
  3. 77′Aymen SlitiGoal · Excelsior
  4. 78′Valentin SulzbacherYellow card · Excelsior
  5. 85′Mario DomínguezYellow card · Excelsior
  6. 90′Dani De WitGoal · FC Utrecht
  7. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 62′FC Utrecht · 3 player changesYoann Cathline · Sem van Duijn · Marius Broholm
  • 70′Excelsior · 3 player changesSimon Janssen · Mario Domínguez · Valentin Sulzbacher
  • 80′Excelsior · 1 player changeAlireza Jahanbakhsh
  • 81′FC Utrecht · 1 player changeJoris van Overeem
  • 85′Excelsior · 1 player changeGiuliano Cairo
  • 90′FC Utrecht · 1 player changeJakov Medić

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Excelsior
  1. Stijn van GasselG
  2. Rick MeissenD
  3. Casper WidellD
  4. Kasey BosD
  5. Jan PlugD
  6. Eric da Silva MoreiraM
  7. Irakli YegoianM
  8. Lennard HartjesM
  9. Aymen SlitiF
  10. David GardenF
  11. Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonF
FC Utrecht
  1. Vasilis BarkasG
  2. Matisse DiddenD
  3. Nikolas PanagiotouD
  4. Niklas VesterlundD
  5. Arthur ZagreD
  6. Siebe HoremansM
  7. Dani De WitM
  8. Davy van den BergM
  9. Artem StepanovF
  10. Ángel AlarcónF
  11. Adrian BlakeF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
2Draws
2FC Utrecht
Excelsior — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie5–0
FC Utrecht — Excelsior · Eredivisie4–1
Excelsior — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie1–1
FC Utrecht — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–2
FC Utrecht — Excelsior · Eredivisie1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · FC Utrecht in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior6 matchesFC Utrecht6 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/63.17 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.54 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.7 shots/match
5.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64.33 shots/match
44.3% ●Possession6/643.8%
5 corners/match ●Corners6/63.33 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls6/616.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 14:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorFC Utrecht
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headExcelsior — FC Utrecht
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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