PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Tottenham Hotspur 2–3 Aston Villa · Premier League

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 2–3.

Shots
2015
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
1.221.16
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Tottenham Hotspur 3–2. Recorded in this match (Tottenham Hotspur – Aston Villa): shots 20–15, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 1.22–1.16, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tottenham Hotspur have a visible home split

weak

Tottenham Hotspur's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match14.4 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.6% ●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Aston Villa45.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTottenham HotspurAston VillaBaseline
Possession60.6%45.6%47.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots15 shotsTottenham Hotspur 20 shots, Aston Villa 15 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsTottenham Hotspur 7 shots, Aston Villa 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.22 xG1.16 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.22 xG, Aston Villa 1.16 xG
  • Possession64%36%Tottenham Hotspur 64%, Aston Villa 36%
  • Corners11 corners1 cornerTottenham Hotspur 11 corners, Aston Villa 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsTottenham Hotspur 9 fouls, Aston Villa 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsTottenham Hotspur 1 card, Aston Villa 2 cards
  • Passes571 passes331 passesTottenham Hotspur 571 passes, Aston Villa 331 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%84%Tottenham Hotspur 87%, Aston Villa 84%
  • Shots inside box12 shots9 shotsTottenham Hotspur 12 shots, Aston Villa 9 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksTottenham Hotspur 4 blocks, Aston Villa 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves5 savesTottenham Hotspur 3 saves, Aston Villa 5 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides2 offsidesTottenham Hotspur 5 offsides, Aston Villa 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 45′Johan ManzambiGoal · Aston Villa
  2. 45′Jan Paul van HeckeYellow card · Tottenham Hotspur
  3. Half-time
  4. 46′Nicolas JacksonYellow card · Aston Villa
  5. 60′Mohammed KudusGoal · Tottenham Hotspur
  6. 67′Nicolas JacksonGoal · Aston Villa
  7. 79′Emiliano BuendíaGoal · Aston Villa
  8. 86′Conor GallagherGoal · Tottenham Hotspur
  9. 90′Matty CashYellow card · Aston Villa
  10. 90′Jan Paul van HeckeGoal · Tottenham Hotspur
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 19′Tottenham Hotspur · 1 player changeArchie Gray
  • 46′Aston Villa · 1 player changeMatty Cash
  • 46′Tottenham Hotspur · 1 player changeMohammed Kudus
  • 66′Tottenham Hotspur · 1 player changeJames Maddison
  • 72′Aston Villa · 1 player changeGeorge Hemmings
  • 84′Tottenham Hotspur · 2 player changesConor Gallagher · Lucas Bergvall
  • 84′Aston Villa · 2 player changesIbrahim Mbaye · Ross Barkley
  • 88′Aston Villa · 1 player changeTammy Abraham

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Tottenham Hotspur4-2-3-1
  1. Antonín KinskýG
  2. Jan Paul van HeckeD
  3. Destiny UdogieD
  4. Pedro PorroD
  5. Micky van de VenD
  6. Sandro TonaliM
  7. Mateus FernandesM
  8. Rodrigo BentancurM
  9. SávioF
  10. Dominic SolankeF
  11. Omar MarmoushF
Aston Villa4-2-3-1
  1. Zion SuzukiG
  2. Victor LindelöfD
  3. Tyrone MingsD
  4. Aaron Wan-BissakaD
  5. Matteo RuggeriD
  6. Ross BarkleyM
  7. Boubacar KamaraM
  8. Emiliano BuendíaM
  9. John McGinnF
  10. Nicolas JacksonF
  11. George HemmingsF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Tottenham Hotspur
0Draws
3Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League1–2
Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · FA Cup1–2
Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Aston Villa — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–0
Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa · Premier League4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tottenham Hotspur favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur5 matchesAston Villa5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 0.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/50.88 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
60.6% ●Possession5/545.6%
7.6 corners/match ●Corners5/53 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTottenham HotspurAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headTottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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