PitchMath
League One · 2026

Stevenage 2–1 Luton Town · League One

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Stevenage won 2–1.

Shots
910
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.280.83
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stevenage beat Luton Town 2–1. Recorded in this match (Stevenage – Luton Town): shots 9–10, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.28–0.83, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

weak

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Stevenage, Luton Town.

5.21 days ▲Rest daysStevenage · Luton Town5.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricStevenageLuton TownBaseline
Rest days5.21 days5.21 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Stevenage show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Stevenage's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.67 shots/match ▲ShotsStevenage · Luton Town13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStevenageLuton TownBaseline
Shots9.67 shots/match13 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots10 shotsStevenage 9 shots, Luton Town 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsStevenage 3 shots, Luton Town 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.83 xGStevenage 1.28 xG, Luton Town 0.83 xG
  • Possession30%70%Stevenage 30%, Luton Town 70%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersStevenage 2 corners, Luton Town 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls10 foulsStevenage 15 fouls, Luton Town 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsStevenage 5 cards, Luton Town 2 cards
  • Passes256 passes612 passesStevenage 256 passes, Luton Town 612 passes
  • Pass accuracy69.1%86%Stevenage 69.1%, Luton Town 86%
  • Shots inside box6 shots7 shotsStevenage 6 shots, Luton Town 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksStevenage 3 blocks, Luton Town 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveStevenage 1 save, Luton Town 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesStevenage 1 offside, Luton Town 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 4′Daniel PhillipsYellow card · Stevenage
  2. 23′Daniel KempGoal · Stevenage
  3. 26′Lewis FreestoneYellow card · Stevenage
  4. 30′Liam WalshYellow card · Luton Town
  5. 44′Daniel KempYellow card · Stevenage
  6. Half-time
  7. 70′Josh MagennisGoal · Stevenage
  8. 75′Mads AndersenGoal · Luton Town
  9. 80′Saxon EarleyYellow card · Stevenage
  10. 90′Luther James-WildinYellow card · Stevenage
  11. 90′Mads AndersenYellow card · Luton Town
  12. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 56′Stevenage · 1 player changeBen Broggio
  • 58′Luton Town · 2 player changesJake Richards · Kasey Palmer
  • 66′Luton Town · 1 player changeNahki Wells
  • 76′Stevenage · 3 player changesJordan Houghton · Michael Mellon · Saxon Earley
  • 84′Luton Town · 1 player changeTudor Mendel-Idowu
  • 85′Stevenage · 1 player changeMatthew Smith

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Stevenage
0Draws
1Luton Town
Luton Town — Stevenage · League One2–1
Stevenage — Luton Town · League One2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stevenage favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stevenage6 matchesLuton Town6 matches
1.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 2 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.55 xG/match
9.67 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 13 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 4.5 shots/match
42.3%Possession6/6● 56%
3.83 corners/matchCorners6/6● 5 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStevenageLuton Town
CompetitionLeague One
Head-to-headStevenage — Luton Town
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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