PitchMath
League One · 2026

Notts County 0–1 Bradford City · League One

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bradford City won 0–1.

Shots
98
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.490.5
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bradford City beat Notts County 1–0. Recorded in this match (Notts County – Bradford City): shots 9–8, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.49–0.5, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bradford City have a visible away split

weak

Bradford City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.33 shots/match11.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bradford City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bradford City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Notts County show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Notts County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsNotts County · Bradford City11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNotts CountyBradford CityBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match9.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots8 shotsNotts County 9 shots, Bradford City 8 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsNotts County 1 shot, Bradford City 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.49 xG0.5 xGNotts County 0.49 xG, Bradford City 0.5 xG
  • Possession51%49%Notts County 51%, Bradford City 49%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersNotts County 5 corners, Bradford City 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls19 foulsNotts County 12 fouls, Bradford City 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards4 cardsNotts County 4 cards, Bradford City 4 cards
  • Passes388 passes372 passesNotts County 388 passes, Bradford City 372 passes
  • Pass accuracy71.9%67.7%Notts County 71.9%, Bradford City 67.7%
  • Shots inside box3 shots6 shotsNotts County 3 shots, Bradford City 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks1 blockNotts County 3 blocks, Bradford City 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves0 savesNotts County 2 saves, Bradford City 0 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesNotts County 1 offside, Bradford City 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nick Tsaroulla · Notts County · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Pratt · Bradford City · 52′ · 0.01 xG · goalJosh Neufville · Bradford City · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Ness · Notts County · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRory Finneran · Notts County · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuka Smyth · Notts County · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOliver Cooper · Notts County · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoni Sarcevic · Bradford City · 4′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNick Tsaroulla · Notts County · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRory Finneran · Notts County · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKayden Jackson · Bradford City · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNick Tsaroulla · Notts County · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNick Powell · Bradford City · 73′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLuka Smyth · Notts County · 80′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKayden Jackson · Bradford City · 55′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAden Baldwin · Bradford City · 51′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJake Beesley · Bradford City · 58′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedHindolo Mustapha · Notts County · 5′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Notts County: 10 shots, 0 on target, 0.52 xG. Bradford City: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′George Pratt · Bradford City · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Notts County 0.52 xG · Bradford City 0.49 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Notts County
  1. James BelshawG
  2. James GibbonsD
  3. Jacob BedeauD
  4. Lucas NessD
  5. Darius LipsiucD
  6. Nick TsaroullaD
  7. Jack EvansM
  8. Rory FinneranM
  9. Oliver CooperF
  10. Luka SmythF
  11. Hindolo MustaphaF
Bradford City
  1. Jon McCrackenG
  2. Ibou TourayD
  3. Josh NeufvilleD
  4. Aden BaldwinD
  5. George PrattD
  6. Matthew PenningtonD
  7. Callum ConnollyM
  8. Antoni SarcevicM
  9. Adam PhillipsF
  10. Jake BeesleyF
  11. Bobby PointonF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Notts County favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Bradford City in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Notts County6 matchesBradford City6 matches
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61 goal/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 0.67 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.15 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 4 shots/match
44%Possession6/6● 51.7%
5 corners/matchCorners6/6● 7 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls6/614.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNotts CountyBradford City
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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