PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

1. FC Heidenheim 5–3 SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga

5–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 5–3.

Shots
2417
Shots on target
97
Expected goals
2.641.74
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat SG Dynamo Dresden 5–3. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – SG Dynamo Dresden): shots 24–17, shots on target 9–7, expected goals 2.64–1.74, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

SG Dynamo Dresden have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%Possession1. FC Heidenheim · SG Dynamo Dresden● 56.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimSG Dynamo DresdenBaseline
Possession46.3%56.3%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots17 shots1. FC Heidenheim 24 shots, SG Dynamo Dresden 17 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots7 shots1. FC Heidenheim 9 shots, SG Dynamo Dresden 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.64 xG1.74 xG1. FC Heidenheim 2.64 xG, SG Dynamo Dresden 1.74 xG
  • Possession37%63%1. FC Heidenheim 37%, SG Dynamo Dresden 63%
  • Corners6 corners9 corners1. FC Heidenheim 6 corners, SG Dynamo Dresden 9 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls6 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 8 fouls, SG Dynamo Dresden 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cards1. FC Heidenheim 2 cards, SG Dynamo Dresden 3 cards
  • Passes275 passes496 passes1. FC Heidenheim 275 passes, SG Dynamo Dresden 496 passes
  • Pass accuracy73.8%81.3%1. FC Heidenheim 73.8%, SG Dynamo Dresden 81.3%
  • Shots inside box19 shots12 shots1. FC Heidenheim 19 shots, SG Dynamo Dresden 12 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocks1. FC Heidenheim 4 blocks, SG Dynamo Dresden 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves6 saves1. FC Heidenheim 3 saves, SG Dynamo Dresden 6 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offside1. FC Heidenheim 3 offsides, SG Dynamo Dresden 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 26′Thomas KellerYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  2. 30′Vincent VermeijGoal · SG Dynamo Dresden
  3. Half-time
  4. 46′Luca KerberYellow card · 1. FC Heidenheim
  5. 52′Mathias HonsakYellow card · 1. FC Heidenheim
  6. 67′Jan SchöppnerGoal · 1. FC Heidenheim
  7. 69′Thomas KellerSecond yellow · SG Dynamo Dresden
  8. 73′Robert WagnerGoal · SG Dynamo Dresden
  9. 77′Friedrich MüllerGoal · SG Dynamo Dresden
  10. 78′Ben BobzienYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  11. 87′Oualid MhamdiGoal · 1. FC Heidenheim
  12. 89′Julian NiehuesGoal · 1. FC Heidenheim
  13. 90′Maximilian BreunigGoal · 1. FC Heidenheim
  14. 90′Jonas SternerGoal · SG Dynamo Dresden
  15. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 56′1. FC Heidenheim · 2 player changesOualid Mhamdi · Paul Hennrich
  • 70′SG Dynamo Dresden · 2 player changesJonas Oehmichen · Jakob Lemmer
  • 71′SG Dynamo Dresden · 1 player changeAhmet Muhamedbegović
  • 71′1. FC Heidenheim · 1 player changeMaximilian Breunig
  • 80′1. FC Heidenheim · 2 player changesYannik Wagner · Julian Niehues
  • 84′SG Dynamo Dresden · 2 player changesNils Fröling · Tobias Raschl

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
0SG Dynamo Dresden
SG Dynamo Dresden — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Heidenheim — SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · SG Dynamo Dresden in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim3 matchesSG Dynamo Dresden3 matches
3.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match
3.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 2.67 goals/match
2.09 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/31.2 xG/match
18.3 shots/match ▲Shots3/312.7 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/34.67 shots/match
46.3%Possession3/3● 56.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/3● 7 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls3/39.67 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimSG Dynamo Dresden
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — SG Dynamo Dresden
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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