PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli drew 2–2.

Shots
98
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
1.061
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Arminia Bielefeld – FC St. Pauli): shots 9–8, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 1.06–1, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

FC St. Pauli have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%PossessionArminia Bielefeld · FC St. Pauli● 52.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArminia BielefeldFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession43.8%52.3%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots8 shotsArminia Bielefeld 9 shots, FC St. Pauli 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsArminia Bielefeld 2 shots, FC St. Pauli 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.06 xG1 xGArminia Bielefeld 1.06 xG, FC St. Pauli 1 xG
  • Possession44%56%Arminia Bielefeld 44%, FC St. Pauli 56%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersArminia Bielefeld 3 corners, FC St. Pauli 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsArminia Bielefeld 12 fouls, FC St. Pauli 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsArminia Bielefeld 2 cards, FC St. Pauli 3 cards
  • Passes461 passes604 passesArminia Bielefeld 461 passes, FC St. Pauli 604 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.5%83.3%Arminia Bielefeld 83.5%, FC St. Pauli 83.3%
  • Shots inside box5 shots5 shotsArminia Bielefeld 5 shots, FC St. Pauli 5 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks1 blockArminia Bielefeld 2 blocks, FC St. Pauli 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves0 savesArminia Bielefeld 3 saves, FC St. Pauli 0 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideArminia Bielefeld 1 offside, FC St. Pauli 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 13′Jannik RocheltGoal · Arminia Bielefeld
  2. 20′Taichi HaraGoal · FC St. Pauli
  3. 35′Marvin MehlemYellow card · Arminia Bielefeld
  4. Half-time
  5. 47′Tomoya AndoYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  6. 51′Joel GrodowskiGoal · Arminia Bielefeld
  7. 56′Eric SmithYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  8. 65′Abdoulie CeesayGoal · FC St. Pauli
  9. 88′Arkadiusz PyrkaYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  10. 88′Maximilian BauerYellow card · Arminia Bielefeld
  11. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′FC St. Pauli · 2 player changesAbdoulie Ceesay · Connor Metcalfe
  • 66′Arminia Bielefeld · 2 player changesLeon Jensen · David Min
  • 76′Arminia Bielefeld · 1 player changeSam Schreck
  • 76′FC St. Pauli · 1 player changeYoussoupha Niang
  • 81′Arminia Bielefeld · 2 player changesTill Wegener · Benjamin Boakye
  • 89′FC St. Pauli · 1 player changeSamuel Klein

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Arminia Bielefeld
  1. Jonas Thomas KerskenG
  2. Maximilian BauerD
  3. Henri KoudossouD
  4. Arne SickerD
  5. Maximilian GroßerD
  6. Marvin MehlemM
  7. Jannik RocheltM
  8. Monju MomuluhM
  9. Stefano RussoM
  10. Marius WörlM
  11. Joel GrodowskiF
FC St. Pauli
  1. Ben VollG
  2. David NemethD
  3. Marcus MathisenD
  4. Arkadiusz PyrkaD
  5. Tomoya AndoD
  6. Louis OppieD
  7. Eric SmithM
  8. Mathias RasmussenM
  9. Branimir HrgotaF
  10. Taichi HaraF
  11. Martijn KaarsF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Arminia Bielefeld
0Draws
1FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — Arminia Bielefeld · 2. Bundesliga2–1
Arminia Bielefeld — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arminia Bielefeld favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arminia Bielefeld4 matchesFC St. Pauli4 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41.5 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.75 xG/matchExpected goals4/41.71 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots4/415 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 6 shots/match
43.8%Possession4/4● 52.3%
6 corners/match ●Corners4/45.75 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/411.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 4 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArminia BielefeldFC St. Pauli
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headArminia Bielefeld — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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