PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

FC St. Pauli 1–2 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2. Bundesliga

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

1. FC Kaiserslautern won 1–2.

Shots
2111
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.340.71
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – 1. FC Kaiserslautern): shots 21–11, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.34–0.71, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Kaiserslautern show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Kaiserslautern's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · 1. FC Kaiserslautern10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. Pauli1. FC KaiserslauternBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match10 shots/match15.2 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match17.7 shots/match16.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

FC St. Pauli have recorded the higher season possession share.

51% ●PossessionFC St. Pauli · 1. FC Kaiserslautern43%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. Pauli1. FC KaiserslauternBaseline
Possession51%43%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots11 shotsFC St. Pauli 21 shots, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFC St. Pauli 7 shots, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.34 xG0.71 xGFC St. Pauli 1.34 xG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.71 xG
  • Possession59%41%FC St. Pauli 59%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersFC St. Pauli 4 corners, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsFC St. Pauli 9 fouls, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsFC St. Pauli 3 cards, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4 cards
  • Passes515 passes366 passesFC St. Pauli 515 passes, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 366 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.6%73.2%FC St. Pauli 80.6%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 73.2%
  • Shots inside box11 shots5 shotsFC St. Pauli 11 shots, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks3 blocksFC St. Pauli 7 blocks, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves6 savesFC St. Pauli 2 saves, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 6 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideFC St. Pauli 4 offsides, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 29′Erencan YardımcıGoal · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
  2. 38′David NemethYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  3. 41′Marcus MathisenYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  4. Half-time
  5. 46′Thierry Fidjeu-TazemetaGoal · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
  6. 56′Abdoulie CeesayGoal · FC St. Pauli
  7. 62′Jacob RasmussenYellow card · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
  8. 64′Ibrahim KanateYellow card · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
  9. 67′Fabian KunzeYellow card · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
  10. 76′Mario SauerYellow card · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
  11. 89′Tomoya AndoYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  12. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 46′1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1 player changeThierry Fidjeu-Tazemeta
  • 55′FC St. Pauli · 2 player changesConnor Metcalfe · Abdoulie Ceesay
  • 68′1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2 player changesMergim Berisha · Mario Sauer
  • 71′1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1 player changeLeon Robinson
  • 83′FC St. Pauli · 1 player changeYoussoupha Niang
  • 84′1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1 player changeKelven Frees

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC St. Pauli
0Draws
11. FC Kaiserslautern
FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2. Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Kaiserslautern — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga1–2
FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2. Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Kaiserslautern — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli3 matches1. FC Kaiserslautern3 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 0.33 goals/match
1.95 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/30.88 xG/match
17.3 shots/match ▲Shots3/310 shots/match
6.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/33.33 shots/match
51% ●Possession3/343%
6 corners/match ●Corners3/33.67 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. Pauli1. FC Kaiserslautern
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — 1. FC Kaiserslautern
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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