PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

FC St. Pauli 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli won 1–0.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
0.930.54
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 18–10, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 0.93–0.54, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli have a visible home split

weak

FC St. Pauli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19 shots/match15.6 shots/match15.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.6 corners/match ●CornersFC St. Pauli · VfL Wolfsburg6.2 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Corners6.6 corners/match6.2 corners/match5.55 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shotsFC St. Pauli 18 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsFC St. Pauli 4 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.93 xG0.54 xGFC St. Pauli 0.93 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.54 xG
  • Possession40%60%FC St. Pauli 40%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersFC St. Pauli 10 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls8 foulsFC St. Pauli 12 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsFC St. Pauli 2 cards, VfL Wolfsburg 2 cards
  • Passes327 passes509 passesFC St. Pauli 327 passes, VfL Wolfsburg 509 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.1%87.6%FC St. Pauli 80.1%, VfL Wolfsburg 87.6%
  • Shots inside box9 shots7 shotsFC St. Pauli 9 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 7 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksFC St. Pauli 2 blocks, VfL Wolfsburg 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves3 savesFC St. Pauli 2 saves, VfL Wolfsburg 3 saves
  • Offsides6 offsides0 offsidesFC St. Pauli 6 offsides, VfL Wolfsburg 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 4′Lars RitzkaYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  2. 12′CleitonYellow card · VfL Wolfsburg
  3. 32′Abdoulie CeesayYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  4. Half-time
  5. 85′Joakim MæhleYellow card · VfL Wolfsburg
  6. 88′Joel Chima FujitaGoal · FC St. Pauli
  7. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 65′VfL Wolfsburg · 2 player changesBence Dárdai · Jonas Adjei Adjetey
  • 67′FC St. Pauli · 1 player changeAdam Dźwigała
  • 70′FC St. Pauli · 1 player changeMartijn Kaars
  • 74′VfL Wolfsburg · 2 player changesMaximilian Arnold · Yannick Gerhardt
  • 82′VfL Wolfsburg · 1 player changeAlessio Besio
  • 90′FC St. Pauli · 2 player changesTaichi Hara · Samuel Klein

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

FC St. Pauli
  1. Ben VollG
  2. David NemethD
  3. Eric SmithD
  4. Arkadiusz PyrkaD
  5. Lars RitzkaD
  6. Louis OppieD
  7. Joel Chima FujitaM
  8. Mathias RasmussenM
  9. Youssoupha NiangF
  10. Abdoulie CeesayF
  11. Connor MetcalfeF
VfL Wolfsburg
  1. Jakub ZielińskiG
  2. Kilian FischerD
  3. Hauke WahlD
  4. Joakim MæhleD
  5. CleitonD
  6. Vinícius SouzaM
  7. Muhammed DamarM
  8. Mattias SvanbergM
  9. Kento ShiogaiF
  10. Fabian ReeseF
  11. Alexander BernhardssonF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
2Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
FC St. Pauli — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–3
VfL Wolfsburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1
VfL Wolfsburg — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–1
FC St. Pauli — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli5 matchesVfL Wolfsburg5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 2.06 xG/match
15.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 18.4 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 6.4 shots/match
49.8%Possession5/5● 56%
6.6 corners/match ●Corners5/56.2 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliVfL Wolfsburg
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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