PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Stade Brestois 0–3 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

0–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 0–3.

Shots
2314
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.432.6
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Stade Brestois 3–0. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Real Madrid): shots 23–14, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.43–2.6, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid have a visible away split

weak

Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.4%PossessionStade Brestois · Real Madrid● 53.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisReal MadridBaseline
Possession43.4%53.9%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots14 shotsStade Brestois 23 shots, Real Madrid 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsStade Brestois 5 shots, Real Madrid 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.43 xG2.6 xGStade Brestois 1.43 xG, Real Madrid 2.6 xG
  • Possession41%59%Stade Brestois 41%, Real Madrid 59%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersStade Brestois 4 corners, Real Madrid 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsStade Brestois 11 fouls, Real Madrid 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdimilson Fernandes · Stade Brestois · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Salah · Stade Brestois · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 6′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 27′ · 0.04 xG · goalKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEdimilson Fernandes · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 64′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 77′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKenny Lala · Stade Brestois · 63′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 78′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 65′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.15 xG · on targetHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois · 48′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 26′ · 0.19 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 89′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 78′ · 0.32 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 88′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 56′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 23 shots, 5 on target, 1.42 xG. Real Madrid: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 27′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 56′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.42 xG · Real Madrid 2.62 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 5

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois8 matchesReal Madrid8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.5 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲ 2.45 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots8/7▲ 15.3 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target8/7▲ 6.71 shots/match
43.4%Possession8/7● 53.9%
3.25 corners/matchCorners8/7● 6 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls8/711.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 30 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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