PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Red Bull Salzburg 1–4 Atlético Madrid · UEFA Champions League

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atlético Madrid won 1–4.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
0.642.13
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Madrid beat Red Bull Salzburg 4–1. Recorded in this match (Red Bull Salzburg – Atlético Madrid): shots 10–12, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 0.64–2.13, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match2.5 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Red Bull Salzburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Red Bull Salzburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsRed Bull Salzburg · Atlético Madrid12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRed Bull SalzburgAtlético MadridBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match11 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsRed Bull Salzburg 10 shots, Atlético Madrid 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsRed Bull Salzburg 3 shots, Atlético Madrid 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.64 xG2.13 xGRed Bull Salzburg 0.64 xG, Atlético Madrid 2.13 xG
  • Possession50%50%Red Bull Salzburg 50%, Atlético Madrid 50%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersRed Bull Salzburg 4 corners, Atlético Madrid 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsRed Bull Salzburg 10 fouls, Atlético Madrid 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Koke · Atlético Madrid · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · Red Bull Salzburg · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · Red Bull Salzburg · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiuliano Simeone · Atlético Madrid · 5′ · 0.03 xG · goalNicolás Capaldo · Red Bull Salzburg · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 65′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPetar Ratkov · Red Bull Salzburg · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPetar Ratkov · Red Bull Salzburg · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · Red Bull Salzburg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Red Bull Salzburg · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAdam Daghim · Red Bull Salzburg · 52′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPetar Ratkov · Red Bull Salzburg · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 63′ · 0.09 xG · goalRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 2′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedThomas Lemar · Atlético Madrid · 83′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · Red Bull Salzburg · 12′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.24 xG · goalAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 43′ · 0.32 xG · on targetAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 13′ · 1.00 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Red Bull Salzburg: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.64 xG. Atlético Madrid: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Adam Daghim · Red Bull Salzburg · 90′Giuliano Simeone · Atlético Madrid · 5′Antoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 13′Antoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 45′Marcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Red Bull Salzburg 0.64 xG · Atlético Madrid 2.17 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Salzburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Salzburg12 matchesAtlético Madrid8 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/8▲ 2.5 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/8▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.85 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.63 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots12/8▲ 12.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target12/8▲ 4.88 shots/match
47.2%Possession12/8● 48.6%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/8● 4.88 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls12/89.75 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 30 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull SalzburgAtlético Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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