PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Aston Villa 3–2 Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 3–2.

Shots
1714
Shots on target
97
Expected goals
2.051.69
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Paris Saint-Germain 3–2. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Paris Saint-Germain): shots 17–14, shots on target 9–7, expected goals 2.05–1.69, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.92 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAston Villa · Paris Saint-Germain19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match19.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match9.64 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Paris Saint-Germain have a visible away split

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match19.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots14 shotsAston Villa 17 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 14 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots7 shotsAston Villa 9 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.05 xG1.69 xGAston Villa 2.05 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 1.69 xG
  • Possession34%66%Aston Villa 34%, Paris Saint-Germain 66%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersAston Villa 5 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls3 foulsAston Villa 15 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 3 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPau Torres · Aston Villa · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 55′ · 0.02 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Aston Villa · 57′ · 0.09 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 65′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIan Maatsen · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 34′ · 0.11 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 76′ · 0.11 xG · on targetYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 60′ · 0.12 xG · on targetEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 57′ · 0.14 xG · goalPau Torres · Aston Villa · 60′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Aston Villa · 52′ · 0.17 xG · on targetFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 40′ · 0.20 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′ · 0.21 xG · goalAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 83′ · 0.24 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 11′ · 0.34 xG · goalEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 71′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 70′ · 0.49 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 17 shots, 9 on target, 2.01 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 34′John McGinn · Aston Villa · 55′Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa · 57′Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 11′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.01 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 1.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Aston Villa
0Draws
1Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Aston Villa · UEFA Champions League3–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa12 matchesParis Saint-Germain14 matches
1.92 goals/matchGoals scored12/14▲ 2.14 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed12/141 goal/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals12/14▲ 2.18 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots12/14▲ 19.7 shots/match
5.42 shots/matchShots on target12/14▲ 7.21 shots/match
47.2%Possession12/14● 63.6%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/14● 7 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls12/148.29 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 15 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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