PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Real Madrid 1–2 Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

Arsenal

WWWDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 1–2.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.412.03
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Real Madrid 2–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Arsenal): shots 18–11, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.41–2.03, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.07 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.38 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · Arsenal5.67 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridArsenalBaseline
Corners6.38 corners/match5.67 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shotsReal Madrid 18 shots, Arsenal 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsReal Madrid 3 shots, Arsenal 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.41 xG2.03 xGReal Madrid 1.41 xG, Arsenal 2.03 xG
  • Possession66%34%Real Madrid 66%, Arsenal 34%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersReal Madrid 10 corners, Arsenal 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls15 foulsReal Madrid 18 fouls, Arsenal 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Real Madrid · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 56′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEndrick · Real Madrid · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 8′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 81′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 65′ · 0.22 xG · goalEndrick · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.62 xG · goalVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.66 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 13′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 18 shots, 3 on target, 1.38 xG. Arsenal: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 65′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.38 xG · Arsenal 2.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Real Madrid
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League3–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid14 matchesArsenal12 matches
2.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/12▲ 2.5 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed14/12▲ 0.58 goals/match
2.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/121.89 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots13/1212.8 shots/match
6.08 shots/matchShots on target13/126.25 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession13/1251%
6.38 corners/match ●Corners13/125.67 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1210.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 16 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridArsenal
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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