PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Inter 2–2 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

Inter

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2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Inter and FC Bayern München drew 2–2.

Shots
1520
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.491.4
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Inter and FC Bayern München drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Inter – FC Bayern München): shots 15–20, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.49–1.4, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsInter · FC Bayern München20.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match20.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match8.64 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FC Bayern München have a visible away split

moderate

FC Bayern München's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season20.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match20.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots20 shotsInter 15 shots, FC Bayern München 20 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsInter 6 shots, FC Bayern München 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.49 xG1.4 xGInter 1.49 xG, FC Bayern München 1.4 xG
  • Possession38%62%Inter 38%, FC Bayern München 62%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersInter 5 corners, FC Bayern München 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsInter 10 fouls, FC Bayern München 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolò Barella · Inter · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.01 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Bastoni · Inter · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 9′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Darmian · Inter · 63′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 2′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 54′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMatteo Darmian · Inter · 61′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 52′ · 0.13 xG · goalLautaro Martínez · Inter · 58′ · 0.14 xG · goalBenjamin Pavard · Inter · 61′ · 0.21 xG · goalThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.21 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 36′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 29′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Acerbi · Inter · 29′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Inter: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.54 xG. FC Bayern München: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lautaro Martínez · Inter · 58′Benjamin Pavard · Inter · 61′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 52′Eric Dier · FC Bayern München · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Inter 1.54 xG · FC Bayern München 1.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Inter
0Draws
2FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — Inter · UEFA Champions League1–2
FC Bayern München — Inter · UEFA Champions League2–0
Inter — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Inter favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Inter12 matchesFC Bayern München14 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored12/14▲ 2.21 goals/match
0.42 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/141.29 goals/match
1.76 xG/matchExpected goals12/14▲ 2.45 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots12/14▲ 20.5 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/14▲ 7.71 shots/match
50.3%Possession12/14● 64.8%
2.92 corners/matchCorners12/14● 7.5 corners/match
9.25 fouls/matchFouls12/149.64 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 16 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsInterFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headInter — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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