Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Stade Brestois

WDWWW

2–0Full-time recap

Montpellier

DLDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Stade Brestois	Montpellier
Shots	26 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	3.35 xG/match▲	0.39 xG/match
Possession	65%●	35%
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Stade Brestois: 26 shots, 9 on target, 3.39 xG. Montpellier: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 3.39 xG · Montpellier 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Montpellier's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	1.06 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Montpellier have a visible away split

moderate

Montpellier's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.67 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Stade Brestois's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois · Montpellier13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Stade Brestois	Montpellier	Baseline
Shots	14.6 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	12.9 shots/match
Shots against	10.6 shots/match	15.7 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Stade Brestois

0Draws

3Montpellier

26 Nov 2023Montpellier — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–3

12 Feb 2023Montpellier — Stade Brestois · Ligue 13–0

28 Aug 2022Stade Brestois — Montpellier · Ligue 10–7

3 Apr 2022Montpellier — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–2

11 Dec 2021Stade Brestois — Montpellier · Ligue 10–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Montpellier in 0 · 2 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.06 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.28 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.33 xG/match

1.14 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.33 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1813.3 shots/match

10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1815.7 shots/match

5.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.83 shots/match

4.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.33 shots/match

53.7%●Possessionseason · 18/1843.3%

4.94 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/184.06 corners/match

4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.11 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1833%

72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1856%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois80.6

Montpellier13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois82.4

Montpellier52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois72.2

Montpellier25.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois80.6

Montpellier97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois44.4

Montpellier61.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois50

Montpellier27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois63.9

Montpellier53.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Stade Brestois18 matchesMontpellier18 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.28 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.33 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.3 shots/match

5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.83 shots/match

53.7%●Possession18/1843.3%

4.94 corners/match●Corners18/184.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Stade Brestois9 matchesMontpellier9 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.11 goals/match

0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.44 goals/match

1.95 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.1 xG/match

16.8 shots/match▲Shots9/99.67 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.78 shots/match

55.2%●Possession9/941.3%

5.44 corners/match●Corners9/93.22 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls9/911.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

24.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124.8 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4