PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Metz 0–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

Metz

WLLLL
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 0–1.

Shots
144
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.710.96
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Metz 1–0. Recorded in this match (Metz – Toulouse): shots 14–4, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.71–0.96, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz have a visible home split

moderate

Metz's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.67 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match9.67 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Toulouse have recorded the higher season possession share.

34.7%PossessionMetz · Toulouse● 49.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMetzToulouseBaseline
Possession34.7%49.2%51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots4 shotsMetz 14 shots, Toulouse 4 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsMetz 2 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG0.96 xGMetz 0.71 xG, Toulouse 0.96 xG
  • Possession39%61%Metz 39%, Toulouse 61%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersMetz 5 corners, Toulouse 2 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls18 foulsMetz 20 fouls, Toulouse 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Christophe Herelle · Metz · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKévin N'Doram · Metz · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanley Jean Jacques · Metz · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsmaël Traoré · Metz · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean N'Guessan · Metz · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean N'Guessan · Metz · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMaxime Colin · Metz · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean N'Guessan · Metz · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 83′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanley Jean Jacques · Metz · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaxime Colin · Metz · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Suazo · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIsmaël Traoré · Metz · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGeorges Mikautadze · Metz · 77′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 67′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 14 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG. Toulouse: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Vincent Sierro · Toulouse · 12′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.70 xG · Toulouse 0.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Metz
0Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — Metz · Ligue 13–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Metz favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Metz18 matchesToulouse18 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored18/180.89 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.28 goals/match
0.81 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.05 xG/match
9.67 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 11.4 shots/match
3.39 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 4.17 shots/match
34.7%Possession18/18● 49.2%
4.06 corners/match ●Corners18/183.17 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1815.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMetzToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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