PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Nice 1–0 Metz · Ligue 1

Nice

LWLWL
1–0Historical match

Metz

LLLLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nice won 1–0.

Shots
152
Shots on target
91
Expected goals
2.210.09
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nice beat Metz 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nice – Metz): shots 15–2, shots on target 9–1, expected goals 2.21–0.09, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.84 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.84 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsNice · Metz9.26 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceMetzBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match9.26 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against9.63 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metz have a visible away split

moderate

Metz's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season9.26 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.4 shots/match9.26 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots2 shotsNice 15 shots, Metz 2 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots1 shotNice 9 shots, Metz 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.21 xG0.09 xGNice 2.21 xG, Metz 0.09 xG
  • Possession66%34%Nice 66%, Metz 34%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersNice 5 corners, Metz 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsNice 10 fouls, Metz 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Morgan Sanson · Nice · 35′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAlexis Claude-Maurice · Nice · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDante · Nice · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 40′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKhéphren Thuram · Nice · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFali Candé · Metz · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKhéphren Thuram · Nice · 40′ · 0.07 xG · on targetYoussouf Ndayishimiye · Nice · 42′ · 0.07 xG · on targetGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 22′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMorgan Sanson · Nice · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Claude-Maurice · Nice · 81′ · 0.15 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 84′ · 0.27 xG · on targetEvann Guessand · Nice · 50′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 77′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 15 shots, 9 on target, 2.20 xG. Metz: 2 shots, 1 on target, 0.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Evann Guessand · Nice · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 2.20 xG · Metz 0.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nice
0Draws
1Metz
Metz — Nice · Ligue 10–1
Metz — Nice · Ligue 10–2
Nice — Metz · Ligue 10–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nice favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Metz in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nice19 matchesMetz19 matches
1.05 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/190.84 goals/match
0.58 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.53 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/190.78 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots19/199.26 shots/match
4.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target19/193.26 shots/match
53.8% ●Possession19/1934.6%
5.16 corners/match ●Corners19/193.95 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNiceMetz
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headNice — Metz
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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