Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

RC Lens

WWDWL

0–2Full-time recap

Paris Saint-Germain

WWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	RC Lens	Paris Saint-Germain
Shots	17 shots/match▲	15 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.18 xG/match▲	1.83 xG/match
Possession	34%	66%●
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

RC Lens: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.21 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Lens 2.21 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 1.81 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RC Lens's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: RC Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

RC Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

RC Lens's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.4 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RC Lens have a visible home split

moderate

RC Lens's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.2 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.4%PossessionRC Lens · Paris Saint-Germain●65.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	RC Lens	Paris Saint-Germain	Baseline
Possession	52.4%	65.8%	51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1RC Lens

2Draws

2Paris Saint-Germain

26 Aug 2023Paris Saint-Germain — RC Lens · Ligue 13–1

15 Apr 2023Paris Saint-Germain — RC Lens · Ligue 13–1

1 Jan 2023RC Lens — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 13–1

23 Apr 2022Paris Saint-Germain — RC Lens · Ligue 11–1

4 Dec 2021RC Lens — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

RC Lens favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 7 · 4 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲2.44 goals/match

1.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.78 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/18▲2.11 xG/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.12 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲15.5 shots/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1812.4 shots/match

5.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/17▲6.41 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/174.12 shots/match

52.4%Possessionseason · 18/18●65.8%

5.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/185.28 corners/match

3.78 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.28 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.94 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

44%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1844%

61%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RC Lens63.9

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RC Lens66.7

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RC Lens68.5

Paris Saint-Germain66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RC Lens69.4

Paris Saint-Germain25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RC Lens75

Paris Saint-Germain2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RC Lens75

Paris Saint-Germain69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RC Lens73.6

Paris Saint-Germain66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

RC Lens18 matchesParis Saint-Germain18 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.44 goals/match

1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲0.78 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲2.11 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots18/18▲15.5 shots/match

5.06 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲6.41 shots/match

52.4%Possession18/18●65.8%

5.33 corners/match●Corners18/185.28 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls18/189.94 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

RC Lens9 matchesParis Saint-Germain9 matches

1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.11 goals/match

0.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.67 goals/match

2.01 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲2.46 xG/match

16.2 shots/matchShots9/915.7 shots/match

5.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲6.44 shots/match

51.4%Possession9/9●61.3%

6.33 corners/match●Corners9/95.22 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls9/911 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/125 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4