PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Paris Saint-Germain 3–0 Toulouse · Ligue 1

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 3–0.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
1.161.39
Possession
73%27%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Toulouse 3–0. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Toulouse): shots 17–11, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 1.16–1.39, possession 73%–27%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.7% ●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Toulouse45.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainToulouseBaseline
Possession68.7%45.3%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Toulouse11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainToulouseBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against9.17 shots/match9.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shotsParis Saint-Germain 17 shots, Toulouse 11 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsParis Saint-Germain 8 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG1.39 xGParis Saint-Germain 1.16 xG, Toulouse 1.39 xG
  • Possession73%27%Paris Saint-Germain 73%, Toulouse 27%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersParis Saint-Germain 7 corners, Toulouse 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsParis Saint-Germain 11 fouls, Toulouse 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Aron Dønnum · Toulouse · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedÜmit Akdağ · Toulouse · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMilan Škriniar · Paris Saint-Germain · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarco Asensio · Paris Saint-Germain · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 34′ · 0.04 xG · on targetZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 35′ · 0.06 xG · goalJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMilan Škriniar · Paris Saint-Germain · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 28′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 7′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 84′ · 0.14 xG · goalVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 80′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 69′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 71′ · 0.68 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.18 xG. Toulouse: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′João Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 35′Lucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 84′Vitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 1.18 xG · Toulouse 1.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Paris Saint-Germain
1Draws
1Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 11–3
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain12 matchesToulouse12 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match
0.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.17 goals/match
2.69 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.44 xG/match
18.8 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.8 shots/match
8.58 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match
68.7% ●Possession12/1245.3%
6.92 corners/match ●Corners12/124.92 corners/match
9.17 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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