Ligue 1 · 2024Fri, 22 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Paris Saint-Germain

DWWWW

3–0Full-time recap

Toulouse

LDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint-Germain	Toulouse
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.16 xG/match	1.39 xG/match▲
Possession	73%●	27%
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.18 xG. Toulouse: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 1.18 xG · Toulouse 1.41 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.08 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.7%●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Toulouse45.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint-Germain	Toulouse	Baseline
Possession	68.7%	45.3%	47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Toulouse11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint-Germain	Toulouse	Baseline
Shots	18.8 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	9.17 shots/match	9.5 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Paris Saint-Germain

1Draws

1Toulouse

12 May 2024Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 11–3

19 Aug 2023Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1

4 Feb 2023Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1

31 Aug 2022Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Paris Saint-Germain favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Toulouse in 2 · 4 too close

3 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.08 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.17 goals/match

2.69 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 12/121.44 xG/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.81 xG/match

18.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1211.8 shots/match

9.17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/129.5 shots/match

8.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/123.83 shots/match

3.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/123.17 shots/match

68.7%●Possessionseason · 12/1245.3%

6.92 corners/match●Cornersseason · 12/124.92 corners/match

3.42 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/124.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.17 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1214.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲42%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

Toulouse30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

Toulouse25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint-Germain94.4

Toulouse84.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint-Germain75

Toulouse69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint-Germain2.8

Toulouse91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

Toulouse69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint-Germain73.6

Toulouse54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain12 matchesToulouse12 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.17 goals/match

2.69 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.44 xG/match

18.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.8 shots/match

8.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match

68.7%●Possession12/1245.3%

6.92 corners/match●Corners12/124.92 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.17 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Paris Saint-Germain6 matchesToulouse6 matches

3.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match

2.88 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.58 xG/match

20.8 shots/match▲Shots6/611.7 shots/match

9 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match

66%●Possession6/641.5%

7.33 corners/match●Corners6/64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls6/616.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4