PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Toulouse 2–1 Saint Etienne · Ligue 1

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 2–1.

Shots
113
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.410.52
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Saint-Étienne 2–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Saint-Étienne): shots 11–3, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.41–0.52, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Saint-Étienne's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Saint-Étienne's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Saint-Étienne show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Saint-Étienne's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsToulouse · Saint-Étienne9.87 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseSaint-ÉtienneBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match9.87 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against9.33 shots/match15.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Saint-Étienne have a visible away split

moderate

Saint-Étienne's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season9.87 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match9.87 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots3 shotsToulouse 11 shots, Saint Etienne 3 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsToulouse 4 shots, Saint Etienne 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.41 xG0.52 xGToulouse 1.41 xG, Saint Etienne 0.52 xG
  • Possession39%61%Toulouse 39%, Saint Etienne 61%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersToulouse 2 corners, Saint Etienne 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls15 foulsToulouse 16 fouls, Saint Etienne 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedZuriko Davitashvili · Saint-Étienne · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPierre Ekwah · Saint-Étienne · 83′ · 0.04 xG · on targetShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.07 xG · goalYann Gboho · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.07 xG · on targetShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.40 xG · goalJoshua King · Toulouse · 35′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedLucas Stassin · Saint-Étienne · 53′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.37 xG. Saint-Étienne: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Shavy Babicka · Toulouse · 55′Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 85′Lucas Stassin · Saint-Étienne · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.37 xG · Saint-Étienne 0.55 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Saint Etienne in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse15 matchesSaint Etienne15 matches
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/150.8 goals/match
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/152.27 goals/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/150.99 xG/match
11.3 shots/match ▲Shots15/159.87 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/153.27 shots/match
45% ●Possession15/1541.5%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners15/152.87 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1514 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Dec 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseSaint Etienne
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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