PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Olympique de Marseille 1–1 Lille · Ligue 1

1–1Historical match

Lille

DDWDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Olympique de Marseille and Lille drew 1–1.

Shots
910
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.271.44
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Olympique de Marseille and Lille drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Olympique de Marseille – Lille): shots 9–10, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.27–1.44, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots10 shotsOlympique de Marseille 9 shots, Lille 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsOlympique de Marseille 3 shots, Lille 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.27 xG1.44 xGOlympique de Marseille 1.27 xG, Lille 1.44 xG
  • Possession56%44%Olympique de Marseille 56%, Lille 44%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersOlympique de Marseille 3 corners, Lille 8 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsOlympique de Marseille 14 fouls, Lille 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jonathan David · Lille · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetQuentin Merlin · Olympique de Marseille · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLuís Henrique · Olympique de Marseille · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Olympique de Marseille · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Gomes · Lille · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 8′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAdrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille · 77′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBafodé Diakité · Lille · 87′ · 0.07 xG · goalBafodé Diakité · Lille · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 8′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 78′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Rowe · Olympique de Marseille · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetQuentin Merlin · Olympique de Marseille · 17′ · 0.33 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 53′ · 0.35 xG · on targetNeal Maupay · Olympique de Marseille · 56′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 35′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Olympique de Marseille: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.18 xG. Lille: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Quentin Merlin · Olympique de Marseille · 17′Bafodé Diakité · Lille · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Olympique de Marseille 1.18 xG · Lille 1.44 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Olympique de Marseille
2Draws
2Lille
Lille — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 13–1
Olympique de Marseille — Lille · Ligue 10–0
Lille — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 12–1
Olympique de Marseille — Lille · Ligue 12–1
Olympique de Marseille — Lille · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Olympique de Marseille favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Lille in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Olympique de Marseille15 matchesLille15 matches
2.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151.67 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1 goal/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.7 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots15/1512 shots/match
5.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/154.6 shots/match
60.1% ●Possession15/1556.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners15/15● 4.2 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOlympique de MarseilleLille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headOlympique de Marseille — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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