PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Lille 3–2 SK Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League

Lille

LWWDW
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 3–2.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
2.011.25
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat SK Sturm Graz 3–2. Recorded in this match (Lille – SK Sturm Graz): shots 18–10, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 2.01–1.25, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsLille · SK Sturm Graz13.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLilleSK Sturm GrazBaseline
Fouls12.8 fouls/match13.2 fouls/match10.7 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

SK Sturm Graz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SK Sturm Graz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · SK Sturm Graz8.83 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleSK Sturm GrazBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match8.83 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.5 shots/match15 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shotsLille 18 shots, SK Sturm Graz 10 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsLille 9 shots, SK Sturm Graz 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.01 xG1.25 xGLille 2.01 xG, SK Sturm Graz 1.25 xG
  • Possession67%33%Lille 67%, SK Sturm Graz 33%
  • Corners9 corners2 cornersLille 9 corners, SK Sturm Graz 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls8 foulsLille 6 fouls, SK Sturm Graz 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jonathan David · Lille · 26′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOtar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDimitri Lavalėe · SK Sturm Graz · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOtar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 10′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTochi Chukwuani · SK Sturm Graz · 12′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMalick Yalcouyé · SK Sturm Graz · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 55′ · 0.03 xG · on targetThomas Meunier · Lille · 73′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIsmaily · Lille · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOtar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 45′ · 0.04 xG · goalThomas Meunier · Lille · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Lille · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 37′ · 0.05 xG · goalTochi Chukwuani · SK Sturm Graz · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 71′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTochi Chukwuani · SK Sturm Graz · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Lille · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 81′ · 0.06 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOtar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 63′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 5′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 55′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIsmaily · Lille · 21′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 45′ · 0.40 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 30′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · SK Sturm Graz · 47′ · 0.99 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 18 shots, 9 on target, 1.97 xG. SK Sturm Graz: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Osame Sahraoui · Lille · 37′Mitchel Bakker · Lille · 45′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 81′Otar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 45′Mika Biereth · SK Sturm Graz · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.97 xG · SK Sturm Graz 1.33 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Lille
1Draws
0SK Sturm Graz
Lille — SK Sturm Graz · UEFA Conference League1–1
SK Sturm Graz — Lille · UEFA Conference League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · SK Sturm Graz in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille10 matchesSK Sturm Graz6 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/60.67 goals/match
1.1 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/61.5 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.72 xG/match
11.3 shots/match ▲Shots10/68.83 shots/match
4.9 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/63.17 shots/match
49.8% ●Possession10/636.7%
3.7 corners/match ●Corners10/63 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/613.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Dec 2024, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleSK Sturm Graz
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headLille — SK Sturm Graz
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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