PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

RC Lens 0–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

RC Lens

WLWWD
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 0–1.

Shots
148
Shots on target
14
Expected goals
1.412.03
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat RC Lens 1–0. Recorded in this match (RC Lens – Toulouse): shots 14–8, shots on target 1–4, expected goals 1.41–2.03, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

15.7 fouls/matchFoulsRC Lens · Toulouse14.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRC LensToulouseBaseline
Fouls15.7 fouls/match14.3 fouls/match12.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

RC Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

RC Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RC Lens have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.8% ●PossessionRC Lens · Toulouse44.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRC LensToulouseBaseline
Possession54.8%44.3%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots8 shotsRC Lens 14 shots, Toulouse 8 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot4 shotsRC Lens 1 shot, Toulouse 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.41 xG2.03 xGRC Lens 1.41 xG, Toulouse 2.03 xG
  • Possession66%34%RC Lens 66%, Toulouse 34%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerRC Lens 7 corners, Toulouse 1 corner
  • Fouls20 fouls12 foulsRC Lens 20 fouls, Toulouse 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Deiver Machado · RC Lens · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Frankowski · RC Lens · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPrzemysław Frankowski · RC Lens · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Fulgini · RC Lens · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · RC Lens · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJaydee Canvot · Toulouse · 2′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAngelo Fulgini · RC Lens · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJaydee Canvot · Toulouse · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndy Diouf · RC Lens · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 58′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDenis Genreau · Toulouse · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 38′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 42′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 17′ · 0.31 xG · on targetM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 6′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 45′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.60 xG · on targetZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 73′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RC Lens: 14 shots, 1 on target, 1.42 xG. Toulouse: 8 shots, 4 on target, 2.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Lens 1.42 xG · Toulouse 2.10 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4RC Lens
0Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — RC Lens · Ligue 10–2
RC Lens — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — RC Lens · Ligue 10–1
RC Lens — Toulouse · Ligue 13–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RC Lens favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RC Lens16 matchesToulouse16 matches
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.13 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.06 goals/match
1.62 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.47 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots16/1611.1 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164 shots/match
54.8% ●Possession16/1644.3%
5.56 corners/match ●Corners16/164.44 corners/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRC LensToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headRC Lens — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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