PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Paris Saint-Germain 4–1 Lille · Ligue 1

4–1Historical match

Lille

LWLWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 4–1.

Shots
266
Shots on target
112
Expected goals
3.591.07
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Lille 4–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Lille): shots 26–6, shots on target 11–2, expected goals 3.59–1.07, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Paris Saint-Germain's recent record differs from the season

weak

Paris Saint-Germain's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match2.75 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.5 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Lille12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainLilleBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.25 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.5% ●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Lille57.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainLilleBaseline
Possession68.5%57.5%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots26 shots6 shotsParis Saint-Germain 26 shots, Lille 6 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots2 shotsParis Saint-Germain 11 shots, Lille 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.59 xG1.07 xGParis Saint-Germain 3.59 xG, Lille 1.07 xG
  • Possession58%42%Paris Saint-Germain 58%, Lille 42%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersParis Saint-Germain 9 corners, Lille 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsParis Saint-Germain 6 fouls, Lille 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 80′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 51′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 6′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 19′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 16′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 35′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 37′ · 0.09 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 65′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 12′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 19′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.13 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 66′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 50′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 28′ · 0.29 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 83′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 21′ · 0.34 xG · on targetMarquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′ · 0.36 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 80′ · 0.70 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 6′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 26 shots, 11 on target, 3.62 xG. Lille: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 6′Marquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 28′Désiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 37′Jonathan David · Lille · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 3.62 xG · Lille 1.10 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Paris Saint-Germain
1Draws
0Lille
Lille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–3
Paris Saint-Germain — Lille · Ligue 13–1
Lille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Lille · Ligue 14–3
Lille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–7

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Lille in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain24 matchesLille24 matches
2.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.63 goals/match
0.96 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.13 goals/match
2.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/241.72 xG/match
18.5 shots/match ▲Shots24/2412.8 shots/match
8.42 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/245 shots/match
68.5% ●Possession24/2457.5%
6.58 corners/match ●Corners24/244.83 corners/match
8.92 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Mar 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainLille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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